Hyperliquid (HYPE) is holding steady near the $71.82 mark, showing a daily gain of 4.4%. Since the beginning of the year, the token has demonstrated impressive momentum, surging approximately 250% from around $20.50 in January. The market is now attempting to challenge the all-time high of $76.70 for the third time.
Fundamental Factors: Record Revenues and Institutional Interest
The key driver of the upward movement is the protocol's record performance. On June 30, Hyperliquid surpassed the $1 billion mark in cumulative revenue, as confirmed by DeFiLlama data. The mechanism works as follows: approximately 99% of trading fees on the platform are directed towards buying back HYPE from the market through a special support fund.
Institutional interest is also gaining momentum. In mid-May, the first spot ETFs for HYPE — Bitwise BHYP and 21Shares THYP — launched on the US market. The total net inflow into these funds exceeded $170 million by early July, and Grayscale filed its own S-1 application with the SEC. The interaction between the buyback fund and capital inflows from ETFs creates a powerful bullish catalyst.
Pressure from Unlocks and Regulators
However, not everything is straightforward. On July 6, an unlock of 9.92 million HYPE occurred (equivalent to approximately $645 million at the time). Although the buyback fund held 4.6 times more funds than needed to absorb this volume, the very fact of a permanent threat of holder dilution remains a significant restraining factor. Currently, only 22% of the total limit of 1 billion tokens is in free circulation, and monthly unlocks will continue from 2027 onwards.
Regulatory pressure is also intensifying. In late June, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) added Hyperliquid to its list of companies with heightened risk for retail investors. Similar warnings were issued by UK authorities. Moreover, Bloomberg reported calls from exchanges CME and ICE for the US CFTC to review the legality of the project's perpetual contract listings. The emergence of such news led to an immediate 6% drop in the HYPE price.
Technical Analysis: Volatility Squeeze Foreshadows a Strong Move
On the daily chart, HYPE has been moving upward since January. After a correction from the all-time high, the price has sequentially bounced off Fibonacci levels 0.382 ($55.41) and 0.236 ($63.66), forming shorter pullbacks — a sign of growing demand. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to 60, maintaining a bullish structure.
On the 4-hour chart, it is evident that after the peak on June 16, the price is moving within a tightening triangle. The upper boundary is around $72, and the lower support is at the 0.236 level ($63.66). The Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) shows extremely low values — historically, such volatility compression often precedes a strong move in one direction.
July Forecast: Two Scenarios
If a close above the triangle boundary occurs on the 4-hour chart, followed by a daily candle closing above $76.70, the price will enter a phase of updating highs. The height of the pattern indicates a potential move to $88 — approximately 22% above the current level. Continued ETF inflows could strengthen this scenario.
If the price fails to surpass the all-time high, the first target will be $63.66, followed by $55.41. A daily close below $63.66 would suggest a deeper correction. The global uptrend will only be threatened if the price falls below $42 — a level where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the trend line converge.
Analyst's Comment: In my opinion, July will be decisive for HYPE. The combination of strong fundamental support (buyback fund + ETFs) and technical volatility compression creates ideal conditions for a breakout. However, the risks associated with regulatory pressure and unlocks cannot be ignored. I expect that in the coming weeks, we will see either a decisive breakout to $88-90 or a deep correction to $55-42.