On July 8, the first cryptocurrency sharply corrected, breaking through the $62,000 mark and reaching a local low near $61,700. The reason was a sharp escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which dashed hopes for a diplomatic settlement. Donald Trump unilaterally declared the truce over, which immediately impacted all risk assets.
Markets in the Red Zone
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin lost 2%, trading near $62,100. Ethereum fell 2.4% to $1,700, XRP plunged 4.2% to $1.08, and Solana lost 5%, dropping to $77.24. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 also declined by 1–1.5%, confirming the systemic nature of the sell-off. WTI oil surged more than 5% to $74.02 per barrel — a classic defensive capital maneuver.
What Happened in the Middle East?
On the night of July 8, the US struck over 80 military targets in Iran, including air defense systems and radar stations. A retaliatory strike by the IRGC followed immediately: 85 targets were attacked at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. The trigger was the shelling of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict, which began on February 28, went through several phases of truce, but the current escalation calls into question any diplomatic agreements, including the "Islamabad Memorandum" of June 17.
Key Bitcoin Levels
The technical picture is now critical. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades highlights the $67,300 mark as a signal of strength, but the market is far from it. The $62,800 level is the 200-week SMA, and $59,860 is the lower boundary of the current range. Michaël van de Poppe considers the $61,000 zone decisive for bulls: if it holds, the move toward $68,000 remains in play. However, CryptoQuant experts warn of a trap: funding rates have surged, retail traders are aggressively opening long positions, while spot volumes are declining. This is a classic "leverage trap" scenario, where whales sell into pumps.
My analytical assessment: The market is in a zone of high uncertainty. The geopolitical shock is layered on top of technical vulnerability — an overheated futures market without real demand. Until Bitcoin firmly holds above $64,000, any positive scenario is merely an illusion. In the short term, I expect a retest of $60,700, and if broken, a drop to $58,000. Investors should prepare for volatility: the truce has ended not only in the Middle East but also in the crypto market.