The market for the first cryptocurrency is experiencing a unique period where several key groups of investors — from institutional ETF buyers to the largest holders — have found themselves in loss-making positions. On-chain data analytics paints a picture of "universal pain" that covers almost all segments of participants.
As of July 6, the price of Bitcoin was fluctuating around the $63,000 mark, while the average entry price for investors in US spot ETFs is $72,000. This means that institutional buyers, who actively entered the market through exchange-traded funds, are now holding the asset below their average purchase price — a situation rarely observed in such a concentrated form.
The second group under pressure is the so-called "new whales." Their unrealized profit ratio has remained negative for more than eight months after the all-time high. The last time such dynamics were recorded was in September 2022, at the bottom of the previous bear cycle. Now we are seeing an almost mirror-like repetition of that configuration.
The third signal concerns the entire on-chain market. As of June 30, with the Bitcoin price at $58,000, the supply-in-loss indicator showed four consecutive rising quarters — for the first time in over eight years. This is an unprecedented duration during which holders have not seen profits on their positions.
Parallels with 2022 and Risks
The most telling comparison is with September 2022. At that time, a prolonged period of negative unrealized profit among whales preceded the formation of a market bottom, after which a new growth cycle began. The repetition of this configuration may indicate the proximity of a comparable phase. However, the same data also carries short-term risks.
As long as the Bitcoin price stays below the realized price of ETFs ($72,000), any recovery will run into the desire of institutions to break even — this level can act as strong resistance. The same logic applies to Ethereum whales, who are also sitting in the red.
The key to the short-term future will be the behavior of loss-making groups. If they continue to hold their positions, supply will remain tight, and the foundation for a reversal will strengthen. If capitulation begins, the market may see one more, final wave of decline before forming a sustainable bottom.
My comment: The current situation resembles a "shakeout" of weak hands from the market, which historically precedes major moves. However, investors should be prepared for increased volatility: as long as the largest players do not lock in losses or wait for a return to their average entry prices, the market will remain in a state of limbo.