The market for the first cryptocurrency is experiencing a rare period of synchronized losses among all key participant groups. Spot Bitcoin ETF investors, large holders (whales), and retail on-chain users are all simultaneously "in the red." This is not just statistics, but a powerful signal of the depth of the current correction.
An analysis of on-chain metrics, conducted by me based on data from the CryptoQuant platform, has revealed three parallel trends, which I have grouped under the common name "phase of universal pain." Each of them records losses for a specific group of investors.
Wall Street Under Pressure
The first and perhaps most telling group is the buyers of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. As of July 6, when BTC was trading around $63,000, the realized price of these funds was $72,000. This means that institutional investors who entered the asset through exchange-traded instruments are holding their positions below the average entry price. The gap of nearly $9,000 is a serious psychological barrier.
Whales in a Prolonged Loss
The second group is the so-called "new whales." Their unrealized profit ratio has remained negative for over eight consecutive months following the all-time high. The last time this was observed was in September 2022, at the very bottom of the previous bear cycle. This indicates that large holders, who accumulated coins near the peak, are still unable to turn a profit.
On-Chain Market Sets an Anti-Record
The third observation concerns the entire on-chain space. As of June 30, with the Bitcoin price at $58,000, the "supply in loss" metric recorded four consecutively growing quarters. This happened for the first time in over eight years. Such a prolonged period of unprofitability for a broad range of holders is an unprecedented signal.
What Does This Mean for the Market?
The combination of these signals paints a picture of a late bear cycle. When institutions from ETFs, whales, and retail holders are all simultaneously at a loss, historically this means that selling pressure is approaching its limit. Fewer and fewer participants are willing to sell at a loss.
The parallel with new whales and September 2022 is particularly telling. At that time, a prolonged period of negative unrealized profit preceded the formation of a market bottom, after which a new growth cycle began. The repetition of this configuration may indicate the proximity of a comparable phase.
At the same time, the same data also carries short-term risks. As long as the Bitcoin price remains below the realized price of ETFs ($72,000), any recovery will be constrained by the desire of institutions to break even. This level could act as strong resistance. The same logic applies to Ethereum whales.
Expert Conclusion: The key for the short-term future will be the behavior of loss-making groups. If they continue to hold their positions, supply will remain compressed, and the foundation for a reversal will strengthen. If capitulation begins, the market may see one more, final wave of decline before forming a sustainable bottom. We are currently in a zone of maximum uncertainty, where the patience of holders will be the main factor.