The Hyperliquid (HYPE) token is currently trading around the $71.82 mark, showing a daily increase of 4.4%. Bulls are making a third attempt to storm the all-time high of $76.70. Since the start of the year, the asset has appreciated by approximately 250%, starting in January at around $20.50.
Record protocol revenues and ETF inflows strengthen buyers' positions
The key driver of growth is the fundamental strength of the project. On June 30, Hyperliquid surpassed the $1 billion mark in cumulative protocol revenue. Analytics show that 99% of trading fees are directed towards market buybacks of HYPE through a special support fund. On July 6, an unlock of 9.92 million HYPE (equivalent to ~$645 million at the time) occurred, but the buyback fund had 4.6 times more funds available. Previously, demand from the fund had successfully absorbed similar volumes.
Institutional investors are also expanding their presence. In mid-May, the first spot ETFs for HYPE launched on the US market — Bitwise BHYP and 21Shares THYP. Total net inflows into the funds exceeded $170 million by early July, and Grayscale filed its own S-1 application with the SEC. The interaction between the buyback fund and capital inflows from ETFs sparked active discussions about a potential shift in market forces as early as May.
Unlocks and regulatory pressure question the sustainability of growth
However, not all factors favor the bulls. Starting in 2027, on the sixth day of each month, access to new tranches of HYPE will open for early project participants. Currently, only 22% of the total 1 billion token supply is in free circulation. The permanent threat of dilution for holders' stakes acts as a significant restraining factor.
Simultaneously, there is increasing intense pressure from government agencies. In late June, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) added Hyperliquid to its list of companies posing heightened risks to retail investors. Similar warnings were issued by UK authorities. Moreover, Bloomberg reported calls from exchanges CME and ICE for the US CFTC to review the legality of listing the project's perpetual contracts. The emergence of such news led to an immediate 6% drop in the HYPE price.
The overall macroeconomic environment also plays an important role. In June, US spot bitcoin funds recorded a record outflow of $4.5 billion. The market sentiment index sharply shifted into the extreme fear zone. It is clear that the scale of HYPE token buybacks is tightly linked to trader activity. If a prolonged correction across the entire industry begins, the project's internal support will inevitably weaken.
Technical analysis: volatility compression signals a strong move
Since January, HYPE has been moving upward. After a correction in mid-June from the all-time high, the price dropped to the 0.382 Fibonacci level — around $55.41. The next pullback was weaker and ended at the 0.236 level — $63.66. Each new decline became shorter, indicating rising demand. Even during the deepest correction, user activity remained high.
On the 4-hour chart, it can be seen that after the peak on June 16, the price has been moving within a narrowing triangle. HYPE is now approaching the upper boundary of the formation — approximately $72. Within this range, support runs at the 0.236 level, i.e., $63.66. The RSI indicator on this timeframe is holding near the 60 mark — just below the confident bullish zone. At the same time, the Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) shows extremely low values. Historically, such volatility compression often precedes a strong move in one direction.
HYPE price forecast: will it break $77 or return to $63.66?
If a close above the triangle boundaries occurs on the 4-hour chart, followed by a daily candle closing above $76.70, the price will enter a phase of updating highs. The height of the pattern points to a potential move towards $88 — approximately 22% above the current level. Continued inflows into ETFs could strengthen this scenario.
If the price fails to surpass the all-time high, the first target will be $63.66, followed by $55.41. A daily close below $63.66 would indicate a deeper correction. The global uptrend will only be threatened if the price falls below $42 — the level where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the trend line converge. The situation in July will depend on whether the volatility compression resolves with a breakout to new levels or a pullback to another test of Fibonacci support.
My view: Hyperliquid's fundamentals are impressive, but regulatory risks and upcoming unlocks create significant uncertainty. A breakout above $76.70 would open the path to $88, but failure could lead to a deep correction towards $55 and lower. Investors should be prepared for high volatility.