On July 8, the first cryptocurrency plummeted to ~$61,700 amid a sharp escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran. President Donald Trump officially stated that he considers the truce regime exhausted, triggering a new wave of uncertainty in global markets.
Market Reaction: Red Numbers Everywhere
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin lost 2% of its value, trading around $62,100. Ethereum fell by 2.4% to $1,700. XRP dropped by 4.2% ($1.08), and Solana by 5% ($77.24). The decline also affected traditional markets: Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures fell by 1–1.5%. WTI crude oil, on the other hand, surged more than 5% to $74.02 per barrel, while the US dollar index held above 100 points.
Context of Escalation
On the night of July 8, the US struck more than 80 military targets in Iran, including air defense systems and radar stations. The trigger was an attack by Iranian forces on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on July 7. In response, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed attacks on 85 targets at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
The conflict began on February 28, with the first truce taking effect on April 8 through Pakistan's mediation. On June 17, the parties signed the "Islamabad Memorandum," extending the ceasefire for 60 days. However, both sides repeatedly violated the agreements. The US has already revoked oil sanctions relief—one of the key concessions to Tehran. Trump added that negotiators could continue contacts, but a formal withdrawal from the memorandum has not been announced.
Key Bitcoin Levels: What Analysts Say
Amid the geopolitical storm, traders are closely watching technical benchmarks. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades highlighted $67,300 as a level that, if broken, "would be a sign of strength." He identified $62,800 as the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and $59,860 as the lower range boundary. Previously, he noted that a close above $64,000 would open the path to $65,800, while $60,700 serves as critical support for bulls.
MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe considers the $61,000 area key for the current market structure. If this level holds, the scenario of a move toward $68,000 remains valid. He emphasized that he sees no issue with Bitcoin's dynamics and considers a shallow correction acceptable even after the latest escalation.
Analysts at CryptoQuant draw attention to concerning on-chain signals. Perpetual contract funding rates have surged sharply, retail traders are aggressively opening long positions, but spot volumes are declining. Open interest is rising without support from real demand. The recent Bitcoin rally to ~$64,000 was speculative in nature. Previously, CryptoQuant analyst under the pseudonym TheChessOnChain pointed to the risk of a drop below $58,000.
At the same time, Bernstein specialists call a $150,000 target for Bitcoin achievable by the end of 2026, highlighting long-term optimism amid short-term volatility.
Expert Commentary from Cryptalist: Geopolitical escalation is a classic catalyst for risk-off sentiment, and the crypto market is no exception. However, the current correction looks technically justified: overheated futures markets and declining spot volumes have long signaled the need for a position "reset." If Bitcoin holds $60,000–$61,000, it will be a powerful bullish signal. Otherwise, we face a test of $58,000, opening the door to a deeper correction. Investors should closely monitor on-chain data rather than news headlines.