The US Federal Reserve is preparing to release the minutes of the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The document will be published on Wednesday at 9:00 PM Moscow time. Investors hoping to find clear signals regarding the September rate decision are likely to face a lack of specifics.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has already refrained from publishing an individual forecast in the current cycle. The final statement from the agency was extremely concise — just 130 words. Moreover, officials completely removed the traditional wording about further steps from the release. Thus, the meeting minutes remain the only source of information about internal disagreements within the leadership.
The Committee Split into Two Camps
The Fed kept the rate at 3.50–3.75% on June 17 — this is already the fourth consecutive pause. Of the 18 committee members, nine allowed for at least one rate hike in 2026. Warsh decided not to present his forecast.
The meeting took place before the release of the June US Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report. The report recorded only 57,000 new jobs — the worst figure in the last four months. If the minutes contain hawkish rhetoric, it will reflect a situation where the labor market still appeared strong. Weaker numbers emerged later.
The CME FedWatch tool estimates the probability of a rate hike in September at 50–55%. Before the release of the weak June data, expectations were at 66%. Warsh directly addressed the uncertainty of the situation at the press conference:
"Inflation exceeds the 2% target that the Fed has been stating for over five years. Persistently high prices place a heavy burden on the shoulders of Americans. However, the past does not necessarily repeat itself," said Kevin Warsh.
The Essence Lies in Silence
Since the beginning of his tenure, the chair has consistently promoted the idea of reducing public statements. In his deep conviction, the regulator should not give market participants unnecessary hints. On the contrary, investors need to independently analyze incoming macroeconomic indicators.
For these reasons, the value of the June minutes increases significantly. There are currently no other detailed explanations from officials. Later, at the economic symposium in Sintra, the head of the regulator confirmed the agency's uncompromising stance. He emphasized that the Fed will not tolerate inflation above the target level.
The new materials will help assess the true mood of the hawkish faction, which demanded a rate hike in June. On the other hand, internal contradictions may remain hidden behind general phrases. In any case, the chair's secrecy could prolong uncertainty on the exchanges even after Wednesday.
Analytical conclusion: For the crypto market, the prolonged pause and the Fed's vague rhetoric mean a continuation of a protracted flat. If the minutes indicate an imminent rate cut, this will spur an influx of liquidity into bitcoin and altcoins as high-risk assets. However, a hawkish stance from officials and uncertainty will force large investors to move capital into the safe-haven dollar, limiting cryptocurrency growth in the coming months.