The Bitcoin market is experiencing a rare moment when virtually all categories of participants — from institutional investors through spot ETFs to the largest whales and retail holders — are simultaneously in loss. Analysis of on-chain metrics shows that we are observing a configuration that I would call a "phase of universal pain." And paradoxically, this could be one of the strongest signals of the cycle bottom approaching.
Who is recording losses and how
As of July 6, the price of Bitcoin was fluctuating around $63,000, while the average entry price for buyers of US spot ETFs is approximately $72,000. This means that institutional products, which were supposed to be the driver of the bull rally, are now holding in deep negative territory. This situation creates strong resistance at the $72,000 level — any bounce will face the desire of these players to break even.
An even more alarming picture is seen among new Bitcoin whales. Their unrealized profit ratio has remained negative for more than eight months after the all-time high. The last time this was observed was in September 2022, at the very bottom of the previous bear market. This is a direct parallel that cannot be ignored, but it also offers hope: back then, a prolonged period of losses preceded the formation of a bottom and the start of a new growth cycle.
On-chain metrics also record an unprecedented trend: the supply of Bitcoin in loss has grown for four consecutive quarters as of June 30. This is the first time in over eight years. Such a long period of holding positions in the red suggests that fewer and fewer participants are willing to sell — the market is transitioning into a capitulation phase.
Ethereum is not far behind
The Ethereum market mirrors the same dynamics. The price of ETH has fallen below the realized price of whales holding between 100 and 100,000 coins. The largest holders of the second cryptocurrency are also in the red, adding pressure to the entire altcoin market.
My analysis and forecast
The combination of these signals paints a picture of a late bear cycle. When ETFs, whales, and retail holders are all simultaneously in loss — this historically indicates a reversal is near. However, one should not forget about short-term risks: if mass capitulation begins, the market could see one final wave of decline before forming a sustainable bottom. The key level to watch is $72,000 for Bitcoin. A breakout and consolidation above this mark will be the first confirmation of a trend change.
My professional opinion: the current phase of "universal pain" is a classic sign that most weak hands have already been washed out. Those holding positions now are doing so deliberately. Historically, such periods precede the most powerful rallies. But patience is the key asset in this game.