The U.S. Federal Reserve is preparing to release the minutes of the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The document will be published on Wednesday at 9:00 PM Moscow time. Investors hoping to find clear guidance on the September rate decision risk facing a lack of specifics.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has already declined to publish an individual forecast in the current cycle. The agency's final communiqué was extremely concise—just 130 words. Moreover, officials completely removed traditional language about next steps from the release. Thus, the meeting minutes remain the only source of information about internal debates within the leadership.
Committee Split into Two Camps
The Fed left the rate at 3.50–3.75% on June 17—this is already the fourth consecutive pause. Of the 18 committee members, nine allowed for at least one rate hike in 2026. Warsh decided not to present his forecast.
The committee met before the release of the June U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report. The report recorded only 57,000 new jobs—the worst figure in the last four months. If the minutes contain hawkish rhetoric, it reflects a situation when the labor market still appeared strong. Weaker numbers came later.
CME FedWatch estimates the probability of a September rate hike at 50–55%. Before the weak June labor market data, expectations were at 66%. Warsh directly addressed the uncertainty of the situation at the press conference.
"Inflation exceeds the 2% target that the Fed has stated for over five years. Persistently high prices place a heavy burden on Americans. However, the past does not necessarily repeat itself," — Kevin Warsh.
The Essence Lies in Silence
Since the beginning of his tenure, the chair has consistently promoted the idea of reducing public statements. In his deep conviction, the regulator should not give market participants unnecessary hints. Instead, investors need to independently analyze incoming macroeconomic indicators.
For these reasons, the value of the June minutes increases significantly. There are currently no other detailed explanations from officials. Later, at the economic symposium in Sintra, the regulator's head confirmed the agency's uncompromising stance. He emphasized that the Fed will not tolerate inflation above the target level.
The new materials will help assess the real sentiment of hawkish members who demanded a rate hike in June. On the other hand, internal contradictions may remain hidden behind general phrases. In any case, the chair's secrecy could prolong uncertainty on exchanges even after Wednesday.
For the crypto market, prolonging the pause and the Fed's vague rhetoric mean a continuation of prolonged sideways movement. If the minutes point to an imminent rate cut, it will spur an inflow of liquidity into bitcoin and altcoins as high-risk assets. However, a hawkish stance from officials and uncertainty will force large investors to move capital into the safe-haven dollar, limiting crypto growth in the coming months.
My expert assessment: The market overestimates the likelihood of a signal for easing. Warsh consistently minimizes information triggers, and the minutes will likely confirm a hawkish stance, which will be a negative factor for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.