The bitcoin market is experiencing a rare moment when nearly all key participant groups—from institutional investors through spot ETFs to the largest holders and retail on-chain addresses—find themselves in a state of unrealized losses. Analysts are recording several signals simultaneously, united under the common term "pain."
Wall Street Under Pressure
The first alarming link was investors in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs. As of July 6, when BTC was trading around $63,000, the average entry price for buyers of these funds was $72,000. This means that institutional capital entering through exchange-traded products has been holding the asset below its cost basis for an extended period. This situation creates a powerful resistance level: any recovery will bump up against the desire of large players to break even.
New Whales: Eight Months of Losses
The second group is the so-called "new whales." Their unrealized profit ratio has remained negative for more than eight months after reaching an all-time high. The last time a similar picture was observed was in September 2022, at the very bottom of the previous bear cycle. This parallel is particularly telling: a prolonged period of losses among large holders historically preceded the formation of a market bottom and the start of a new upward trend.
On-Chain Market: Record Growth in Supply at a Loss
The third signal concerns the entire on-chain space. As of June 30, with bitcoin at $58,000, the supply-in-loss indicator recorded four consecutive quarters of growth—for the first time in over eight years. This is an unprecedented duration when the vast majority of coins moved on the network are at a loss. The longer this phase lasts, the fewer participants remain willing to sell at a loss, which historically tightens supply and prepares the ground for a reversal.
Ethereum Is Not Far Behind
The crisis has also not spared the Ethereum market. ETH's market price has fallen below the realized price of whales holding between 100 and 100,000 coins. The largest holders of the second cryptocurrency are also sitting at a loss, mirroring bitcoin's pattern.
Conclusions and Outlook
The combination of these signals paints a picture of a late bear phase. When institutional players (ETFs), large holders (whales), and a broad range of on-chain participants are simultaneously at a loss, selling pressure historically approaches exhaustion. The key to the short-term future will be the behavior of these groups: if they continue to hold their positions, supply will remain tight, and the foundation for a reversal will strengthen. If capitulation begins, the market may see one more, final wave of decline before forming a sustainable bottom.
Expert opinion: The current configuration reminds me of September 2022—back then, a prolonged period of pain among whales preceded the start of a bull cycle. However, it's worth remembering that between "pain" and "reversal," there is often another sharp sell-off. Until we see either a confident breakout above the $72,000 level (the average ETF price) or mass capitulation, the market will remain in a zone of uncertainty. Investors should prepare for volatility but not lose sight of long-term signals of seller exhaustion.