Australia's Department of Employment and Workplace Relations has released its first national report on the impact of generative AI on the labor market. The study did not find mass layoffs but recorded a clear signal: employment in professions highly susceptible to automation is growing significantly slower than in other sectors.
According to the data, from November 2022 to February 2026, employment growth in the fifth of professions most vulnerable to AI was only 5.6%. For comparison, in the group with minimal exposure to the technology, this figure reached 9.5%. The report's authors characterize this as an "early and moderate signal," rather than evidence of widespread job losses.
Who is at risk?
The highest risk zone includes routine cognitive professions: office workers, data entry operators, accountants, marketing specialists, and programmers. The least susceptible to automation are professions involving physical labor and caregiving: caregivers, electricians, drivers, and construction workers.
Particular attention should be paid to the gender and educational imbalance. In the most vulnerable professions, the share of men is 43.7%, while in the least vulnerable group, it is 69.5%. At the same time, 43.7% of workers in the risk zone hold a bachelor's degree, whereas in the protected group, this figure drops to 14.9%. This indicates that AI primarily impacts office workers with higher education, rather than traditional "blue-collar" workers.
No mass collapse, but the trend is clear
Despite these signals, Australia's labor market as a whole remains stable. The unemployment rate in February 2026 was 4.2% — below pre-pandemic levels. The employment-to-population ratio reached 64%. The authors also do not record an accelerated redistribution of labor between professions.
However, negative trends are noticeable within vulnerable groups: not only employment but also hours worked and the number of vacancies are growing more slowly. The unemployment rate in these categories has increased more than the market average. It is important to note that some of these professions were already declining before the advent of ChatGPT, so the current dynamics may result from a combination of factors: structural changes, post-pandemic restructuring, and the influence of AI.
Expert opinion
The Australian government's report is an important signal for the global market. It confirms that generative AI is changing the employment structure not through mass layoffs, but through a slowdown in hiring. This is a more subtle, but no less dangerous process. Investors and businesses should closely monitor such reports: companies whose business models rely on routine intellectual labor may face an unexpected talent shortage or, conversely, an oversupply of labor in other sectors.