The Bitcoin market is experiencing a phase I would call "universal pain." Several key groups of participants are simultaneously in the red: spot ETF buyers, large holders (whales), and a broad range of on-chain investors. This synchronicity of losses is a rare and alarming phenomenon, which, however, may indicate an approaching turning point.
Institutions Under Pressure
As of July 6, the price of Bitcoin was fluctuating around $63,000, while the average entry price for US spot ETFs was $72,000. This means that all buyers of exchange-traded funds, since their launch, are at a loss. The gap of $9,000 is significant and creates a powerful resistance level. Any recovery towards the $72,000 mark will encounter the desire of institutions to break even, which could stall growth.
Whales in a Prolonged Loss
An even more telling situation is with new Bitcoin whales. Their unrealized profit ratio has remained predominantly negative for more than eight months after the all-time high. The last time this was observed was in September 2022 — at the bottom of the previous bear market. This parallel is extremely important: back then, a prolonged period of losses preceded the formation of a bottom and the start of a new growth cycle. If history repeats itself, we may be on the verge of a similar reversal.
On-Chain Market Hits Anti-Records
The third signal is an unprecedented increase in the supply of Bitcoin at a loss. According to data from June 30, at a price of $58,000, this indicator grew for four consecutive quarters — for the first time in over eight years. This suggests that holding positions is becoming increasingly difficult for the majority of network participants. However, as historical experience shows, when almost everyone is ready to sell at a loss, selling pressure naturally dries up.
Ethereum is Not Far Behind
The crisis has also affected the Ethereum market. The price of ETH has fallen below the realized price of whales holding between 100 and 100,000 coins. The largest holders of the second cryptocurrency are also in the red, adding negativity to the overall picture.
My conclusion: The combination of these signals paints a classic picture of a late bear phase. Losses are distributed across all key groups — from Wall Street to retail holders. Historically, it is at such moments that the market reaches a bottom and prepares for a reversal. However, the key trigger will be the behavior of loss-making groups: if they continue to hold positions, supply will remain constrained, and the foundation for growth will strengthen. If mass capitulation begins, we will face a final, last wave of decline before a sustainable bottom forms. In any case, the current configuration requires close attention.