This week, the market is holding its breath in anticipation of the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting. The document will be published on Wednesday at 21:00 Moscow time. For the crypto community, this event is particularly significant as it could set the direction for the coming weeks. However, as recent signals from the regulator indicate, investors should not expect clear guidance.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has consistently adhered to a strategy of minimal intervention in market expectations. His last statement following the June meeting consisted of only 130 words, and traditional language about future steps was completely omitted. This means the minutes are becoming the sole source of information about internal debates within the committee.
Division in the Committee: Hawks vs. Doves
Recall that on June 17, the Fed kept the rate at 3.50–3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive pause. However, the committee is divided: nine out of 18 members allowed for at least one rate hike in 2026. Warsh himself declined to provide a public forecast, only adding to the uncertainty.
Notably, the meeting took place before the release of the weak U.S. labor market report. June data showed only 57,000 new jobs—the worst result in four months. If the minutes reflect a hawkish tone, it would mean the regulator relied on outdated data about a strong labor market, which was subsequently revised downward.
The CME FedWatch tool estimates the probability of a rate hike in September at 50–55%, significantly lower than the 66% before the weak statistics were released. Warsh himself directly pointed to persistent inflation exceeding the 2% target during the press conference:
"Inflation exceeds the 2% target that the Fed has been stating for over five years. Persistently high prices place a heavy burden on Americans. However, the past does not necessarily repeat itself."
Silence is Golden? Warsh's Strategy and Its Consequences
Since taking office, the chair has consistently promoted the idea of reducing public statements. In his firm belief, the regulator should not give market participants unnecessary hints. Investors must independently analyze incoming macroeconomic indicators.
This is precisely why the value of the June minutes increases significantly. There are currently no other detailed explanations from officials. Later, at the economic symposium in Sintra, the head of the regulator confirmed the agency's uncompromising stance, emphasizing that the Fed will not tolerate inflation above the target level.
The new materials will help assess the true sentiment of the hawkish faction, which demanded a rate hike in June. On the other hand, internal contradictions may remain hidden behind general phrases. In any case, the chair's secrecy could prolong uncertainty in the markets even after Wednesday.
What Does This Mean for the Crypto Market?
For cryptocurrencies, the prolonged pause and the Fed's vague rhetoric mean a continuation of a protracted flat period. If the minutes point to an imminent rate cut, it would spur an inflow of liquidity into bitcoin and altcoins as high-risk assets. However, a hawkish stance from officials and uncertainty will force large investors to move capital into the safe-haven dollar, limiting crypto growth in the coming months.
Cryptalist Expert Opinion: The market is overestimating the likelihood of a "dovish" pivot. Warsh is demonstrating a consistency in hawkish rhetoric rare for a Fed chair. The minutes will likely confirm that the committee is not ready to ease until there are convincing signs of slowing inflation. For bitcoin, this means testing the lower boundaries of the current range, with a possible support break if the dollar strengthens. Investors should prepare for volatility, but not for a directional upward move.