This week, the U.S. Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The document will be published on Wednesday at 21:00 Moscow time, and investors, including the crypto community, are eagerly awaiting it, hoping to find clear signals regarding the September rate decision. However, as practice shows, hopes for specifics may be dashed.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has already abandoned the publication of individual forecasts during the current cycle, and the final communiqué after the June meeting was surprisingly concise — just 130 words. Officials deliberately removed traditional wording about further steps from the release. This means the meeting minutes are becoming almost the only source of information about internal debates and sentiments within the regulator's leadership.
Split in the Committee: Hawks vs. Doves
Let me remind you that on June 17, the Fed kept the rate at 3.50–3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive pause. However, out of 18 committee members, nine allowed for at least one rate hike in 2026. Warsh himself decided not to publish his forecast for September, which only adds to the uncertainty. The meeting took place before the release of the June employment report, which turned out to be weak — only 57,000 new jobs, the worst figure in four months. If the minutes contain hawkish rhetoric, it will reflect the labor market situation, which at that time still appeared strong. The weaker numbers came later.
According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a rate hike in September is estimated at 50–55%. Before the weak statistics were released, expectations were at 66%. At the press conference, Warsh directly pointed to the uncertainty of the situation, stating: "Inflation exceeds the 2% target that the Fed has been articulating for over five years. Persistently high prices place a heavy burden on the shoulders of Americans. However, the past does not necessarily repeat itself."
The Essence Lies in Silence
Since the very beginning of his tenure, the chair has consistently promoted the idea of reducing public statements. In his deep conviction, the regulator should not give market participants unnecessary advances. On the contrary, investors should independently analyze incoming macroeconomic indicators. For these reasons, the value of the June minutes increases significantly — there are simply no other detailed explanations from officials at the moment.
The new materials will help assess the real mood of the hawkish faction, which demanded a rate hike in June. On the other hand, internal contradictions may remain hidden behind general phrases. In any case, the chair's secrecy could prolong uncertainty on the exchanges even after Wednesday.
My analysis: For the crypto market, the prolonged pause and the Fed's vague rhetoric mean a continuation of a protracted flat trend. If the minutes point to an imminent rate cut, it will spur an inflow of liquidity into bitcoin and altcoins as high-risk assets. However, a hawkish stance from officials and uncertainty will force large investors to move capital into the safe-haven dollar, limiting cryptocurrency growth in the coming months. The market needs a clear signal, but, apparently, Warsh does not intend to provide one.