The Federal Reserve is preparing to release the minutes of the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The document will be published on Wednesday at 21:00 Moscow time. Investors hoping to find clear guidance on the September rate decision may face a lack of specifics.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has already declined to publish an individual forecast in the current cycle. The final statement from the agency was extremely concise—just 130 words. Officials completely removed traditional language about further steps from the release. Therefore, the meeting minutes remain the only source of information about internal debates within the leadership.
The Committee is split into two camps
The Fed left the rate at 3.50–3.75% on June 17—this is already the fourth consecutive pause. Of the 18 committee members, nine allowed for at least one rate hike in 2026. Warsh decided not to present his own forecast.
The committee held the meeting before the release of the June employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The report recorded only 57,000 new jobs—the worst figure in the last four months. If the minutes contain hawkish rhetoric, it reflects a situation when the labor market still appeared strong. Weaker numbers emerged later.
CME FedWatch estimates the probability of a rate hike in September at 50–55%. Before the weak June labor market data was released, expectations were at 66%. Warsh directly addressed the uncertainty of the situation at the press conference.
"Inflation exceeds the 2% target that the Fed has been stating for over five years. Persistently high prices place a heavy burden on Americans. However, the past does not necessarily repeat itself," — Kevin Warsh.
The essence lies in silence
Since the beginning of his tenure, the chair has consistently promoted the idea of reducing public statements. In his firm belief, the regulator should not give market participants unnecessary advance signals. Instead, investors need to independently analyze incoming macroeconomic data.
For these reasons, the value of the June minutes increases significantly. There are currently no other detailed explanations from officials. Later, at the economic symposium in Sintra, the head of the regulator confirmed the agency's uncompromising stance. He emphasized that the Fed will not tolerate inflation above the target level.
The new materials will help assess the real sentiment of hawkish members who demanded a rate hike in June. On the other hand, internal contradictions may remain hidden behind general phrases. In any case, the chair's secrecy could prolong uncertainty on exchanges even after Wednesday.
For the crypto market, the prolonged pause and the Fed's vague rhetoric mean a continuation of a protracted flat period. If the minutes point to an imminent rate cut, this would spur an inflow of liquidity into bitcoin and altcoins as high-risk assets. However, a hawkish stance from officials and uncertainty will force large investors to move capital into the safe-haven dollar, limiting cryptocurrency growth in the coming months.
Expert opinion: The market is clearly overestimating the Fed's ability to provide clear signals amid the gap between real data and rhetoric. The minutes will likely confirm the split within the committee, which will increase volatility but will not provide a trigger for directional movement. Investors should prepare for a period of consolidation until September.