This week, the U.S. Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The document will be released on Wednesday at 9:00 PM Moscow time. Investors, including cryptocurrency market participants, hope to find clear guidance on future monetary policy, but are likely to face a lack of specifics.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has consistently avoided public forecasts. The June post-meeting statement was extremely brief—just 130 words—and omitted traditional language about future steps. Thus, the minutes remain the only source capable of shedding light on internal debates among committee members.
Division in the Committee: Hawks vs. Doves
Recall that on June 17, the Fed kept the rate at 3.50–3.75%—this is already the fourth consecutive pause. However, out of 18 voting participants, nine allowed for at least one rate hike in 2026. Warsh, in turn, directly pointed to uncertainty during the press conference: inflation remains above the 2% target, and the labor market, while cooling, still sends mixed signals. The weak June employment report (only 57,000 new jobs—the worst figure in four months) was released after the meeting, making the June minutes partially outdated.
The CME FedWatch tool estimates the probability of a rate hike in September at 50–55%, although before the weak data was published, expectations were at 66%. This suggests that markets do not yet believe in a hawkish scenario but do not rule it out either.
Cryptocurrency Market: Flat as the New Reality
For the crypto community, the release of the minutes is a moment of truth. If the document points to an imminent rate cut, we will see an influx of liquidity into Bitcoin and altcoins as high-risk assets. Conversely, hawkish rhetoric and uncertainty will force large investors to move into the safe-haven dollar, limiting cryptocurrency growth.
Given that Warsh himself has consistently reduced the volume of public statements, the minutes may not provide a clear answer. The chair's secrecy could prolong uncertainty in the markets even after Wednesday. The market essentially remains in a prolonged flat, and no "bullish" breakout will occur without a clear signal from the Fed.
My expert opinion: Crypto investors should prepare for the current sideways trend to persist at least until September. The minutes will likely confirm the division in the committee but will not provide specific timelines. The only catalyst would be an unexpectedly dovish tone in the document, which could trigger a short-term rally, but without fundamental support.