The published minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting turned out to be significantly more hawkish than most market participants had anticipated. The key conclusion I draw as an analyst is that the regulator is seriously considering a scenario where the active adoption of artificial intelligence could trigger a new wave of inflation. This directly impacts the cost of borrowing and, consequently, the appetite for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Committee members unanimously voted to keep the key interest rate unchanged in June. However, as the documents show, several participants already see compelling arguments in favor of raising it. This is not about a hypothetical future, but about a very real prospect of tightening monetary policy in the coming months. The main catalyst is concern that massive corporate investments in AI infrastructure will create excess demand for resources, energy, and computing power, inevitably fueling price growth.
This uncertainty is putting direct pressure on Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. In an environment where the cost of capital may rise, investors tend to reassess their portfolios in favor of more traditional safe-haven assets. I expect that in the short term, volatility in the digital asset market will persist, and the key support level for Bitcoin will remain a zone, a break of which could trigger a deeper correction.
My comment: The market clearly underestimated the Fed's hawkish signal. If inflation risks from AI materialize, we could see not just a pause in policy easing, but a full cycle of rate hikes, which would become a serious bearish factor for the crypto industry in the second half of the year.