The U.S. Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June 16–17 meeting, and the document published on July 8 confirmed what markets had suspected: there is no unity within the FOMC. All 12 voting members unanimously voted to keep the rate at 3.50–3.75%, but this decision was more of a compromise than a reflection of consensus.
For Chair Kevin Warsh, this meeting was his debut as head of the Fed. And judging by his own words, the atmosphere was tense to the limit: "We had heated debates in the team for a couple of days in a row — and I think the result turned out better." Behind this diplomatic phrasing lies a serious rift.
Hawks vs. Doves: Who Will Win?
A number of participants directly stated that a rate hike would have been justified as early as June, but they supported a pause to maintain the appearance of unity. Meanwhile, most committee members point to persistent inflation risks related to tariffs, rising energy prices in the Middle East, and — crucially — a sharp increase in demand for technology, data centers, and electricity due to the artificial intelligence boom.
Forecasts from nine of the 19 committee members suggest at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. This sharply contrasts with earlier expectations, which did not foresee any tightening at all. Notably, Warsh himself did not present his personal forecast, leaving the market to speculate.
Inflation and AI: A New Driver of Pressure
Fed experts revised their inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 upward. Core inflation stood at 3.3% in April and around 3.4% in May, significantly above the 2% target. Key factors cited include tariffs, resource supply disruptions, and investments in AI infrastructure.
Some participants believe that AI could reduce costs in the long term by boosting productivity, but this effect will only materialize over years. For now, demand for data centers and complex equipment continues to put upward pressure on prices.
Bitcoin: Market Reaction
At the time of the minutes' release, bitcoin (BTC) was trading around $62,240, down about 2.7% over the day. The decline followed activity in the options market, where call options dominated before the document's release. A few days earlier, BTC had bounced to $64,000 amid capital inflows into ETFs, but the "hawkish" rhetoric of the minutes quickly cooled buyers' enthusiasm.
The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28–29. With inflation remaining above the target level and nine members still leaning toward a rate hike, new data on inflation and the labor market will determine whether Warsh's "family discussion" ends with a rate increase or another pause.
My analysis: The cryptocurrency market remains highly sensitive to Fed monetary policy. The rift within the FOMC adds uncertainty, and as long as the "hawks" hold their ground, bitcoin is unlikely to confidently break above $65,000. Investors should brace for volatility until the July meeting.