On July 8, the U.S. Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June 16–17 meeting. The document recorded a unanimous decision to keep the key interest rate at 3.50–3.75%, but revealed serious disagreements among committee members regarding further actions. This was the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, who, notably, refrained from providing a personal rate forecast.
Hawks Gain Strength: Nine Votes for a Hike
Despite all 12 voting members supporting a pause, the minutes clearly show a split. Some meeting participants insisted on the need to raise rates as early as June, citing persistent inflation risks. Key factors putting pressure on prices include: trade tariffs, rising energy prices in the Middle East, and, notably, the rapidly growing demand for technology, data centers, and electricity, triggered by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.
Remarkably, 9 out of 19 Fed officials now expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. Such forecasts were not made at all until recently. Warsh himself, at the post-meeting press conference, quite candidly described the course of discussions, calling it a "real family squabble for a couple of days," but emphasizing that the final decision was the only correct one.
The AI Inflation Spiral: A New Challenge for the Fed
Fed experts have raised inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027. The main drivers are tariffs, supply disruptions from Middle Eastern countries, and massive investments in AI infrastructure. In April, core inflation stood at 3.3%, and in May around 3.4%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target.
The minutes note that although AI could reduce costs in the long term due to increased productivity, this effect will take several years to materialize. For now, demand for data centers and high-tech equipment continues to push prices up, creating a unique inflation puzzle for the regulator.
Bitcoin Under Pressure: Market Reassesses Risks
At the time of writing this analysis, bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $62,240, down approximately 2.7% over the past day. The market reacted to the publication of the minutes, where the key source of uncertainty was the lack of a clear rate forecast from the new Fed chair.
The decline occurred amid high activity in the bitcoin options market: before the minutes were released, investors were betting on growth, following BTC's bounce to $64,000 thanks to positive ETF flows. This dynamic underscores the crypto market's high sensitivity to rate expectations — a similar scenario previously played out during the debate over the Fed's independence.
Ryan Kirkley, co-founder of Global Settlement Network, rightly noted that the dynamics of oil, government bond yields, and the dollar exchange rate already reflect a reassessment of expectations: markets are pricing in prolonged inflation, not a short-term spike. The minutes only confirmed this trend, explaining the rise in inflation by increased demand due to AI development, tariffs, and energy costs.
My analysis: The split within the Fed is a signal to the market that the era of "cheap money" is finally over, and the fight against inflation is entering a new, more complex phase. For bitcoin, this means continued high volatility and a close correlation with macroeconomic data in the coming months. The key support level remains the $60,000 zone, a break of which could trigger a deeper correction.