The digital asset market has once again entered a zone of turbulence. The release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) meeting held on June 16-17 triggered a notable correction in the leading cryptocurrency. The document, made public on July 8, revealed serious disagreements within the committee regarding the future trajectory of monetary policy, which inevitably impacted investor sentiment.
At first glance, the decision was unanimous: all 12 FOMC members voted to keep the rate at 3.50-3.75%. However, behind the facade of unity lay a heated debate. Several meeting participants advocated for an immediate rate hike in June but ultimately supported a pause. The key argument was the persistent inflation risks, which, according to regulators, are fueled by several factors simultaneously.
"Family Feud" and a Hawkish Forecast
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, for whom this meeting was his first in the new role, described the discussions quite candidly, calling them a "real family feud." Notably, 9 out of 19 regional Fed bank presidents expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. Not long ago, such forecasts were entirely absent. Warsh himself refrained from providing a personal forecast, adding to market uncertainty.
At the press conference, the head of the regulator noted that despite the heated debates, the committee arrived at precisely the decision that was needed. However, the tone of the document and the distribution of votes clearly indicate a shift in the balance toward the "hawks."
Artificial Intelligence as a New Inflation Factor
The meeting minutes revealed an unexpected driver of price increases. Fed experts raised inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027, linking this not only to tariff increases and disruptions in energy supply from the Middle East. The main surprise was the acknowledgment that the boom in investments in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is fueling demand for data centers, high-tech equipment, and electricity, creating additional price pressure.
In April, core inflation in the U.S. stood at 3.3%, and in May around 3.4%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target. Some meeting participants expressed hope that the long-term development of AI would, on the contrary, reduce costs through increased productivity. However, they believe this effect will take several years to materialize. For now, demand for AI hardware continues to push prices upward.
Bitcoin's Reaction: A Test of Strength
The cryptocurrency market immediately reacted to the "hawkish" signal. At the time of the analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around the $62,240 mark, losing approximately 2.7% over the past day. The decline occurred against a backdrop of heightened activity in the options market: shortly before the publication, investors were betting on growth following BTC's rebound to $64,000, supported by positive ETF flows. However, the release of the minutes upset the "bulls'" plans.
This dynamic once again underscores the growing sensitivity of the crypto market to macroeconomic signals. Analysts increasingly note a direct correlation between Bitcoin's dynamics, oil prices, government bond yields, and the dollar exchange rate. The Fed minutes only confirmed this trend: macroeconomics now directly influences crypto, not through indirect channels.
My conclusion: the situation within the Fed continues to intensify. The next FOMC meeting, scheduled for July 28-29, will be key. If new inflation and labor market data confirm the "hawkish" expectations, we may see a continuation of the correction. The "family feud" at the Fed risks escalating into a full-fledged rate hike, which would be a serious test for Bitcoin and the entire risk asset market.