The release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting (June 16–17), published on July 8, introduced significant uncertainty into financial markets, including the cryptocurrency market. The document revealed that, although all 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to keep the key interest rate at 3.50–3.75%, this unity masks deep disagreements regarding the future course of monetary policy.
Split in the Fed: A "Family Quarrel" or a Signal for Tightening?
The minutes recorded that several meeting participants advocated for a rate hike as early as June. Their arguments were based on persistent inflation risks, which, in their view, require preemptive measures. As a result, 9 out of 19 Fed officials expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. This is a sharp contrast to previous forecasts, where such a possibility was not even considered. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, for whom this was his first meeting in office, refrained from providing a personal forecast, calling the discussion a "real family quarrel."
Inflation Tied to AI and Geopolitics
A key factor fueling the "hawkish" sentiment is the upward revision of inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027. The main drivers of price increases are not only traditional tariffs and energy shocks in the Middle East but also unprecedented demand for technologies related to artificial intelligence. Rising investments in data centers, high-tech equipment, and electricity for AI infrastructure are creating additional inflationary pressure. Although some meeting participants acknowledge that AI could reduce costs in the long term through productivity gains, this effect is not expected for at least several years. For now, we see inflation (3.3% in April and around 3.4% in May) steadily remaining above the Fed's 2% target.
Bitcoin's Reaction: A Rebound to $64,000 Gives Way to a Decline
The cryptocurrency market, and Bitcoin in particular, reacted sensitively to the release of the minutes. At the time of writing this analysis, BTC is trading around $62,240, losing approximately 2.7% over the past day. This decline occurred amid active trading in the options market, where investors had placed bets on a rise shortly before the release, after Bitcoin rebounded to $64,000 thanks to positive ETF inflows. This dynamic underscores the high sensitivity of the crypto market to macroeconomic signals, especially to interest rate expectations. We are witnessing how uncertainty within the Fed directly translates into BTC volatility.
Macroeconomics and Crypto: The Connection Becomes Inseparable
The Fed minutes only confirmed a trend that analysts have observed for several months: the crypto market no longer exists in a vacuum. The dynamics of oil, government bond yields, and the dollar exchange rate directly impact Bitcoin's price. Markets are pricing in prolonged inflation, which creates a "bearish" backdrop for risky assets.
The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28–29. New data on inflation and the labor market will be decisive in determining whether the "family conflict" within the Fed will continue with an actual rate hike. For the crypto market, this means one thing: a period of high volatility and increased sensitivity to macroeconomic data will last at least until the end of the month.
Analytical Conclusion: As long as there is no consensus within the Fed and inflation is fueled by structural factors like the AI boom, the market will remain in "risk-off" mode. It will be extremely difficult for Bitcoin to establish itself above $65,000 without a clear signal of monetary policy easing.