The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June meeting, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. The document, published on July 8, confirmed the unanimous decision to keep the key interest rate at 3.50–3.75%, but revealed deep divisions within the committee regarding the future course.
All 12 voting members supported the pause, but this unity proved deceptive. The minutes recorded a serious discussion: several participants advocated for a rate hike as early as June, citing persistent inflation risks. Nevertheless, they agreed with the consensus to avoid creating additional turbulence.
Division in the committee: nine votes for tightening
The key signal is that nine out of 19 officials expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. Not long ago, such forecasts were entirely absent. Warsh himself refrained from offering his own forecast at the press conference but described the discussion as a "real family squabble for a couple of days," noting that they ultimately arrived at the "right decision."
The cause for concern is not only tariffs and rising energy prices from the Middle East. The minutes specifically highlight the factor of artificial intelligence. The AI infrastructure boom, construction of data centers, and explosive demand for high-tech equipment are creating additional inflationary pressure. Although some committee members hope that in the long term AI will reduce costs through productivity growth, this effect is expected only in a few years. For now, demand for electricity and chips continues to push prices upward.
Bitcoin under pressure: correction of 2.7%
The digital asset market immediately reacted to the hawkish tone of the document. At the time of writing this analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $62,240, losing approximately 2.7% over the past day. The decline occurred amid high activity in the options market: shortly before the minutes were published, investors were actively betting on growth, following BTC's rebound to $64,000 driven by ETF inflows. However, the Fed's hawkish signals reversed this positive sentiment.
Analysts increasingly note a direct correlation between macroeconomic factors and the crypto market. Ryan Kerklie, CEO of Global Settlement Network, emphasized that the dynamics of oil, government bond yields, and the dollar exchange rate already reflect a revision of expectations: markets are pricing in prolonged inflation rather than a short-term spike. The Fed minutes only confirmed this trend.
My view: Bitcoin remains a hostage to macroeconomics
The Fed minutes clearly demonstrate that the era of cheap money is definitively over, and the new factor—AI inflation—adds uncertainty. For Bitcoin, this means continued volatility in the $60,000–$65,000 range until the next FOMC meeting on July 28–29. The release of fresh data on inflation and the labor market will be decisive: if they confirm the "hawkish" scenario, we could see a test of support at $60,000 and below. The crypto market can no longer ignore macroeconomics—it is now its mirror.