The Federal Reserve (Fed) released the minutes of its June 16–17 meeting, and the digital asset market instantly reacted with heightened volatility. The document, published on July 8, shed light on serious disagreements within the committee: although all 12 voting members unanimously decided to keep the rate at 3.50–3.75%, the discussion on the future of monetary policy was far from unanimous.
For Kevin Warsh, who chaired the meeting for the first time as Fed Chair, this was a true baptism by fire. The minutes clearly state: there is no consensus on the need to raise rates.
Hawks vs. Doves: The Split Within the FOMC
A number of meeting participants insisted that June required a policy tightening, but ultimately supported a pause. The reason is persistent inflation risks, which, in their view, are exacerbated by several factors: rising tariffs, higher energy costs due to the situation in the Middle East, and, most notably, explosive demand for technology, data centers, and electricity driven by the artificial intelligence boom.
According to the vote, 9 out of 19 officials expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. Just a few months ago, such forecasts were not made at all. Warsh himself was candid at the press conference: "We had a real family squabble for a couple of days, but in the end, we got to where we needed to be."
AI as a New Inflation Factor
Fed experts revised their inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 upward. Key drivers are tariff increases, supply disruptions from the Middle East, and, again, sharp investments in AI infrastructure. Core inflation was 3.3% in April and around 3.4% in May, significantly above the Fed's 2% target.
Some discussion participants believe that over time, AI could reduce costs due to increased productivity. But this effect will only materialize in a few years. For now, demand for data centers and high-tech equipment continues to push prices up.
Bitcoin: Reaction to the Hawkish Tone
At the time of writing this analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $62,240, losing approximately 2.7% over the past day. The market reacted to the publication of the minutes with a decline, and this is no coincidence. The lack of a clear rate forecast from Warsh became the main source of uncertainty.
The decline occurred against the backdrop of high activity in the Bitcoin options market: shortly before the publication, investors were betting on a rise after BTC bounced to $64,000, driven by positive ETF flows. This dynamic underscores the crypto market's sensitivity to rate expectations — a similar scenario played out during the dispute over the Fed's independence related to Lisa Cook.
Analysts note an increasingly close link between macroeconomics and the crypto market. Ryan Kirkley, co-founder of Global Settlement Network, pointed out that the dynamics of oil, government bond yields, and the dollar already reflect a revision of expectations: markets are pricing in prolonged inflation, not a short-term spike. The minutes confirmed this trend.
My analysis: The cryptocurrency market has finally ceased to be an isolated asset. Today, Bitcoin trades as a high-beta instrument to macroeconomic risks. Until the Fed demonstrates a unified position and provides clear signals on rates, BTC will remain in a zone of heightened volatility. The next FOMC meeting on July 28–29 will be a key trigger.