The Federal Reserve (Fed) released the minutes of its June 16–17 meeting, and the document published on July 8 proved far more explosive than markets had anticipated. Despite a unanimous decision to keep the rate at 3.50–3.75%, a real struggle unfolded behind closed doors. The main sticking point is inflation, fueled by several factors, from tariffs to the artificial intelligence boom.
For Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair, this meeting was his first in office. And although all 12 voting members supported the pause, the minutes clearly show there is no consensus whatsoever on the future course. Markets, including the cryptocurrency market, received a clear signal of uncertainty.
A Split Among "Hawks" and "Doves"
Several meeting participants insisted on raising the rate as early as June. However, the majority deemed it too risky to change course amid persistent inflationary threats. Key drivers include rising tariffs, higher energy costs in the Middle East, and, notably, explosive demand for technology, data centers, and electricity driven by AI development.
According to the vote, 9 out of 19 officials expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. Such forecasts were unheard of until recently. Warsh himself refrained from providing a personal forecast, calling the discussion a "real family squabble," but emphasized that the final decision was correct.
AI as a New Inflation Factor
Fed experts raised inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027. In addition to traditional factors like tariffs and supply disruptions, sharp investments in AI infrastructure were singled out. Core inflation stood at 3.3% in April and around 3.4% in May, well above the 2% target.
Some meeting participants believe that over time, AI could reduce costs through increased productivity. But this effect will take several years to materialize. Meanwhile, demand for data centers and high-tech equipment continues to push prices higher.
Bitcoin: Reaction to the "Hawkish" Tone
The market did not keep it waiting. At the time of writing, bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $62,240, down approximately 2.7% over the past 24 hours. The decline occurred amid activity in the options market: shortly before the minutes were released, investors had bet on a rise after bitcoin bounced to $64,000 thanks to positive ETF inflows. But the Fed's hawkish tone quickly cooled enthusiasm.
Analysts note an increasingly close link between macroeconomics and the crypto market. Ryan Kerklie, co-founder and CEO of Global Settlement Network, emphasizes that oil dynamics, government bond yields, and the dollar exchange rate already reflect a shift in expectations: markets are pricing in prolonged inflation, not a short-term spike.
My analysis: The Fed minutes are not just a formality. They show that the rift within the committee is deepening, and this is a key signal for the crypto market. Bitcoin can no longer ignore macroeconomic risks, and its volatility is a direct reflection of this new reality. The next FOMC meeting on July 28–29 will be decisive: if the hawks prevail, we could see an even harsher reaction.