The U.S. Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June 16-17 meeting on July 8. The document recorded not just a pause in the tightening cycle, but a deep divide in the views of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members. Despite the unanimous decision to keep the rate at 3.50-3.75%, the minutes revealed serious contradictions regarding the future course of monetary policy.
"Family Feud": Hawks vs. Doves
Although all 12 voting members supported the status quo, several participants directly stated that the June meeting required a rate hike. They compromised, but only to maintain the current level. The key argument of the "hawks" was the persistent inflation risks. They pointed to three main factors: new import tariffs, rising energy prices in the Middle East, and explosive demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related technologies.
Notably, 9 out of 19 Fed officials now expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. Such forecasts were not heard at all until recently. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh himself, for whom this was his first meeting in office, did not provide a personal forecast. At the press conference, he described the course of discussions quite frankly, calling it a "real family feud," but noted that a consensus was ultimately reached.
AI as a New Inflation Factor
Fed experts revised their inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 upward. The main reasons are rising tariffs, supply disruptions from Middle Eastern countries, and sharp investments in AI infrastructure. In April, core inflation was 3.3%, in May around 3.4%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target.
Some meeting participants believe that AI spending could eventually reduce costs through increased productivity. However, this effect will take several years to materialize. For now, demand for data centers and high-tech equipment continues to push prices up.
Analysts See Increasingly Close Link Between Macroeconomics and the Crypto Market
The cryptocurrency market reacted instantly to the publication. At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $62,240, down approximately 2.7% over the past 24 hours. The decline occurred amid active options trading: shortly before the publication, investors were betting on a rise after Bitcoin rebounded to $64,000 thanks to positive ETF flows. This dynamic underscores the crypto market's sensitivity to rate expectations.
Ryan Kerklie, co-founder and CEO of Global Settlement Network, noted that the dynamics of oil, government bond yields, and the dollar index already reflect a revision of expectations: markets are pricing in prolonged inflation, not a short-term spike. The minutes confirmed this trend.
The next FOMC meeting will be held on July 28-29. Inflation remains above target, and nine committee members lean towards tightening policy. New inflation and labor market data will be decisive in determining whether the dispute within the Fed, which Warsh called a "family conflict," will continue with a rate hike or a pause.
Cryptalist Expert Commentary: The market appears to be starting to price in a "hawkish" scenario for the long term. For Bitcoin, this means maintaining a high correlation with traditional risk assets. In the short term, we will likely see a test of the $60,000 level, and if support does not hold, the correction could deepen. The key signal will be the June inflation data, which will act as a trigger for the next move.