Markets received a long-awaited signal from the Federal Reserve: the published minutes of the June 16-17 meeting shed light on the depth of internal disagreements. Despite the unanimous decision to keep the rate at 3.50–3.75%, the document, released on July 8, revealed a troubling split within the ranks of monetary authorities.

Hawks Gain Strength

The key takeaway from the minutes is a growing faction of "hawks." Nine of the 19 Fed officials now expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. This is a stark contrast to previous meetings, where such forecasts were virtually absent. Notably, for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, this meeting was his debut, and he refrained from providing his own forecast, calling the discussion a "real family squabble."

Inflation and AI: A New Source of Uncertainty

The main reason for the tightening rhetoric is persistent inflation risks. Meeting participants pointed to three key factors: rising tariffs, disruptions in energy supplies from the Middle East, and, most importantly, a sharp surge in demand for technology, data centers, and electricity driven by the artificial intelligence boom. The core PCE inflation index stood at around 3.4% in May, significantly above the Fed's 2% target. Some committee members expressed the view that large-scale investments in AI infrastructure could lower costs in the long run through productivity gains, but this effect will only materialize in a few years. For now, demand for high-tech equipment continues to push prices up.

Bitcoin Under Macroeconomic Pressure

The cryptocurrency market's reaction was immediate and telling. At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $62,240, losing approximately 2.7% over the past day. The decline occurred amid high activity in the options market, where investors, shortly before the minutes' release, were betting on a rise following BTC's bounce to $64,000, supported by positive ETF flows. However, the "hawkish" undertone of the document instantly dashed the bullish sentiment.

This dynamic confirms the growing correlation between the crypto market and traditional macroeconomics. As rightly noted by Global Settlement Network CEO Ryan Kirkley, cryptocurrencies now directly respond to oil dynamics, bond yields, and the dollar exchange rate. Markets are pricing in prolonged inflation, not a short-term spike, and the Fed minutes only confirmed this trend.

My View

The next FOMC meeting on July 28-29 will be critical. Nine "hawks" on the committee are no longer just noise but a real signal. If inflation statistics and labor market data do not show significant cooling, we could witness not just a pause but a real resumption of the tightening cycle. For Bitcoin, which is increasingly perceived as a high-risk asset sensitive to borrowing costs, this will mean continued pressure and, likely, testing lower support levels.