The digital asset market has once again found itself at the epicenter of macroeconomic turbulence. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June 16–17 meeting, published on July 8, acted as a catalyst for sharp movements. Despite the unanimous decision to keep the rate at 3.50–3.75%, the document revealed serious disagreements among FOMC members regarding the future course of monetary policy.
Hawks vs. Doves: Internal Struggle at the Fed
Although all 12 voting members supported the pause, the minutes showed no consensus on the need for further tightening. Several participants advocated for a rate hike as early as June, citing persistent inflation risks. However, the majority agreed to a temporary pause, pointing to three key factors putting pressure on prices: new trade tariffs, rising energy prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and explosive demand for technology, data centers, and electricity triggered by the artificial intelligence boom.
Notably, 9 out of 19 Fed officials expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. Such forecasts were not even considered until recently. Chairman Jerome Powell himself, for whom this was his first meeting in office, refrained from providing a personal forecast but described the discussions at the press conference as a "real family squabble," emphasizing the intensity of the debates.
Artificial Intelligence as a New Driver of Inflation
A key surprise in the minutes was the Fed's acknowledgment that AI development complicates inflation forecasts. The regulator's experts raised their inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027. The main reasons cited were tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and "sharp investments in AI infrastructure." Core inflation stood at 3.3% in April and around 3.4% in May, significantly above the 2% target level.
Some meeting participants expressed hope that, over time, AI spending could reduce costs through productivity gains, but this effect will only materialize in a few years. For now, demand for data centers and high-tech equipment continues to push prices upward.
Bitcoin's Reaction: Decline Amid Hawkish Rhetoric
The cryptocurrency market instantly reacted to the hawkish undertone of the minutes. At the time of analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $62,240, losing approximately 2.7% over the past day. The decline occurred amid heightened activity in the options market: shortly before the release, investors were betting on a rise after BTC bounced to $64,000, driven by positive ETF flows.
This dynamic underscores the growing sensitivity of the crypto market to rate expectations. A similar scenario previously played out during the dispute over the Fed's independence concerning Lisa Cook. Now, the market is pricing in prolonged inflation rather than a short-term spike.
Analyst's Conclusions: Macroeconomics Becomes the Main Driver
As I have repeatedly noted in my reviews for cryptalist.io, the correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional macroeconomic indicators is becoming increasingly tight. The Fed minutes only confirmed this trend. The market now reacts directly to oil, bond yields, and the dollar exchange rate.
The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28–29. Inflation remains above target, and nine committee members lean toward tightening. New data on inflation and the labor market will be decisive in determining whether the internal Fed dispute, which Powell called a "family conflict," will result in a rate hike or a pause.
Expert Opinion: Until the Fed shows a clear signal of easing, Bitcoin will remain hostage to macroeconomic uncertainty. The $60,000 level is critical support, and a break below it could trigger a deeper correction. Investors should closely monitor inflation data next week—it will be a key trigger.