Volatility in the bitcoin market has once again made itself known. The reason was the publication of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting held on June 16–17. The document, released on July 8, revealed an unexpected split within the committee: although all 12 voting members unanimously supported keeping the rate at 3.50–3.75%, the discussion was far from unanimous.
For Kevin Warsh, this meeting was his first as Fed chair. And judging by the tone of the minutes, the debut was heated. Several participants directly advocated for a rate hike as early as June, but ultimately agreed to a pause. The main argument of the "hawks" is persistent inflation risks, fueled by three factors: trade tariffs, rising energy prices in the Middle East, and unprecedented demand for technology, data centers, and electricity driven by the artificial intelligence boom.
Split in Numbers
The key signal for markets is that 9 out of 19 Fed officials expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. Not long ago, such forecasts were not made at all. Warsh himself avoided direct forecasts at the press conference but frankly described the intensity of the discussions: "We had a real family spat for a couple of days, but in the end, we got to where we needed to be."
AI — A New Driver of Inflation
Fed experts have revised inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 upward. In addition to tariffs and supply chain issues, the key factor cited is sharp investments in AI infrastructure. In April, core inflation was 3.3%, in May around 3.4%, significantly above the 2% target. Some participants believe that over time, AI will reduce costs through productivity gains, but this effect will take years to materialize. For now, demand for data centers and high-tech equipment continues to push prices up.
Bitcoin's Reaction
At the time of the analysis publication, bitcoin is trading around $62,240, losing approximately 2.7% over the past day. The market reacted to the hawkish tone of the minutes with a decline, and this is unsurprising. The drop occurred amid high activity in the options market: shortly before the publication, investors were betting on a rise after BTC bounced to $64,000 thanks to positive ETF flows. This dynamic highlights the growing sensitivity of the crypto market to rate expectations — a similar scenario played out during the dispute over the Fed's independence regarding Lisa Cook.
A New Level of Interconnection
Analysts note that the crypto market now reacts directly to oil, interest rates, the dollar, and bond yields. Macroeconomics directly impacts crypto, and the minutes confirmed this. The next FOMC meeting will take place on July 28–29. New inflation and labor market data will be decisive in determining whether the dispute within the Fed, which Warsh called a "family conflict," continues with a rate hike or a pause.
My comment as an analyst: The market is clearly underestimating the likelihood of tightening. If the "hawks" prevail, bitcoin risks testing the $58,000–$60,000 zone in the short term. However, the long-term trend remains bullish, especially against the backdrop of institutional adoption and limited supply.