SpaceX (SPCX) shares have lost more than a third of their value just days after their historic inclusion in the prestigious Nasdaq-100 index. Since reaching an all-time high of $225.64, the stock price has crashed by 35%, completely erasing all post-IPO momentum.
As of trading on July 8, the price of SPCX fell to $148. This marks the second consecutive day that the shares have traded below the initial offering price of $150. Essentially, all of the March gains following the June 12 stock exchange listing have been completely wiped out. Massive sell-offs by retail and institutional investors have easily overwhelmed the mandatory purchases by index funds.
We are witnessing a classic "sell-the-news" scenario. The inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 certainly triggered mechanical buying from ETFs and passive strategies, but this was not enough to sustain the price. Investors who entered the asset in anticipation of this event are now locking in profits, and their selling pressure is proving stronger.
Parallels with Palantir and Fundamental Risks
A similar dynamic was already observed with Palantir, which also joined the Nasdaq-100 in late 2024. At that time, the company's shares retreated by about 25% within a few weeks of inclusion. History is repeating itself, and this is logical: index inclusion is not a fundamental catalyst but a one-time event that often becomes a point for profit-taking.
Despite the correction, SpaceX's market capitalization still hovers around $1.9 trillion. In 2025, the company generated revenue of $18.7 billion, an increase of about 33% from the previous year. However, the business valuation works out to roughly 100 times annual revenue, which is an extremely high multiple.
Starlink is the Main Driver, but Losses are Growing
The primary engine of growth remains Starlink. The satellite internet project brought in over $11 billion for the company in 2025, accounting for about 61% of total revenue. It is Starlink that provides the lion's share of the trillion-dollar valuation for the aerospace giant. However, SpaceX remains unprofitable. For the full year 2025, the company recorded a net loss of $4.9 billion, with an additional $4.3 billion attributed to the first quarter of 2026. Huge costs for developing the xAI division and building the Starship rocket continue to erode free cash flow.
Wall Street generally maintains a positive outlook following the index inclusion. Morgan Stanley, Bernstein, RBC, and UBS have initiated analyst coverage with a "buy" recommendation. MoffettNathanson has taken a neutral stance, while analysts at CFRA advise selling.
My analysis: The future trajectory of SPCX stock prices will be determined less by the index inclusion and more by Starlink's ability to generate enough profit to cover the colossal costs of AI and space technology. For now, the market values the company as a future technology conglomerate, not as a current business. Investors should closely monitor Starlink's financial reports — this segment will determine whether the trillion-dollar valuation is justified or if we will see further correction.