SpaceX (SPCX) securities experienced a sharp decline, losing 35% from their all-time high of $225.64. The crash occurred just days after a landmark event — the company's inclusion in the prestigious Nasdaq-100 index. Massive sell-offs by investors completely offset the mandatory purchases by index funds, leading to a dramatic drop in quotes.
As of trading on July 8, the share price fell to $148. Thus, for the second consecutive day, the securities are trading below the initial public offering (IPO) price of $150. In fact, all of the March gains following the June 12 listing have been completely erased. We are witnessing a classic "sell the news" scenario, which we have repeatedly observed in the market.
"Sell the News" Scenario for SPCX
SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 forced index-tracking funds to make mechanical purchases of shares, despite the relatively small free float. However, this influx of liquidity could not withstand the pressure from retail and institutional investors, who used the positive news to lock in profits. A similar dynamic was observed with Palantir, which also entered the Nasdaq-100 in late 2024. At that time, the company's shares retreated by about 25% within a few weeks of inclusion.
Trillion-Dollar Market Cap Under Pressure
Despite the correction, SpaceX's market capitalization still hovers around $1.9 trillion. In 2025, the company reported revenue of $18.7 billion, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 33%. The business valuation works out to roughly 100 times annual revenue — a multiple that indicates extremely high market expectations.
The main growth driver remains Starlink. The satellite internet project generated over $11 billion for the company in 2025, accounting for about 61% of total revenue. It is Starlink that provides the lion's share of the justification for the trillion-dollar valuation of the aerospace giant.
However, SpaceX remains unprofitable for now. In 2025, the company recorded a net loss of $4.9 billion, with an additional $4.3 billion incurred in the first quarter of 2026. Enormous costs for developing the xAI division and building the Starship rocket continue to erode free cash flow.
Wall Street maintains a mixed outlook. Morgan Stanley, Bernstein, RBC, and UBS have initiated analyst coverage with a "buy" recommendation. MoffettNathanson has taken a neutral stance, while CFRA analysts advise selling. The future dynamics of the quotes will largely depend on Starlink's ability to generate enough profit to cover the rising costs of AI and space technology.
My professional opinion: The decline in SPCX is not a crash, but rather a "landing" after overheating. Index funds have already done their job; now the market will reassess the fundamental indicators. The key question is whether Starlink can achieve positive cash flow in the coming quarters. If so, current levels could become an attractive entry point for long-term investors. If not, selling pressure will continue, and we will see a test of the $130-140 level.