SpaceX (SPCX) shares have lost 35% from their all-time high of $225.64. The decline occurred just days after the company was included in the prestigious Nasdaq-100 index. Massive sell-offs have completely offset mandatory purchases by index funds.
As of trading on July 8, the stock price plummeted to $148. The figures have remained below the initial offering price of $150 for the second consecutive day. Thus, virtually all of the March gains following the June 12 stock exchange listing have been completely erased. We are observing the classic "sell the news" market pattern: the positive catalyst (index inclusion) was already priced in, and profit-taking began after its realization.
"Sell the News" Scenario for SPCX
SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 forced index-tracking funds to buy shares, despite the small volume of freely traded stock. However, such mechanical purchases did not prevent investors from starting to sell on the back of this news. Index funds were compelled to buy, but retail and institutional investors seized the moment to exit.
A similar dynamic was already observed with Palantir, which also joined the Nasdaq-100 at the end of 2024. At that time, the company's shares also retreated by about 25% within a few weeks of index inclusion. SPCX is repeating this scenario, but with an even more aggressive correction.
Trillion-Dollar Market Capitalization Under Pressure
Despite the correction, SpaceX's market capitalization still holds at $1.9 trillion. In 2025, the company generated revenue of $18.7 billion — an increase of about 33% from the previous year. The business valuation works out to roughly 100 times annual revenue — an extreme multiple justified only by faith in future super-profits.
The main driver of business growth remains Starlink. The satellite internet project brought the company over $11 billion in 2025. This amount accounts for about 61% of total revenue. Accordingly, it is Starlink that provides the lion's share of the trillion-dollar valuation of the aerospace giant.
However, SpaceX remains unprofitable for now. For 2025, the company recorded a net loss of $4.9 billion, with an additional $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Huge costs for developing the xAI division and building the Starship rocket continue to erode free cash flow.
Wall Street generally maintains a positive outlook following the Nasdaq-100 inclusion. Morgan Stanley, Bernstein, RBC, and UBS have initiated analyst coverage with a buy recommendation. MoffettNathanson has taken a neutral stance, while CFRA analysts advise selling. Such a divergence of opinions indicates high uncertainty in assessing fair value.
The future dynamics of the quotes largely depend on Starlink's profitability. Currently, investors are closely watching whether the internet provider can outpace the rising costs of artificial intelligence and space technology.
My analysis: The decline in SPCX is not a collapse of fundamentals, but a painful yet expected correction after overheating. The key question for long-term investors is whether Starlink can achieve sustainable operating profitability in the next 2-3 quarters. If so, current levels around $150 could become an attractive entry point. If not, selling pressure will continue, and we will see a test of support in the $120–130 range.