Bitcoin is experiencing the "mildest" bear phase in its history, yet market sentiment remains surprisingly gloomy. The first cryptocurrency has lost about half of its value from the highs of early October 2025, while previous downturns saw declines of 77–84%. This is a paradoxical situation: the drop is not the deepest, but the psychological pressure is immense.
The Fear and Greed Index has barely left the "red zone" throughout almost all of 2026, periodically plunging into extreme fear for record-long periods. History shows that both previous bottoms (2018 and 2022) preceded multiple-fold growth. However, market participants are massively exiting the game precisely when it would be more logical to stay. The bear market tests not courage, but discipline. Let's examine which strategies allow not just surviving the downturn, but also profiting from it.
Why is the current downturn unique?
In the classic sense, a bear market is a decline of 20% or more from a peak. For Bitcoin, this amplitude has always been higher. According to CoinGecko Research data, three past bear cycles "cut" the first cryptocurrency by 77% to 84%: in 2018–2019 — 83.6%, in 2014–2015 — 81.6%, and in 2022–2023 — 76.7% (from $67,617 to $15,742). Against this backdrop, the current decline of 51% is the most lenient. However, in terms of duration, the current phase is already among the longest. The cascade of liquidations during "Black Saturday" in October 2025 significantly reduced market depth, making the chart more volatile and sensitive to large trades.
Discount or trap: entry strategies
At the bottom of a bear market, entry points emerge that seem incredibly attractive at the peak of euphoria. From the December 2018 low (~$3,200), Bitcoin grew more than 20-fold by November 2021. The subsequent drop to $15,500 in November 2022 turned into a nearly 700% rise by October 2025. But catching the bottom is an almost impossible task. If the market repeats the mildest scenario of past cycles, the price could fall to approximately $29,000 — half of current levels.
Instead of guessing, I recommend the dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy. Regular purchases in small portions eliminate the need to catch "falling knives." However, it's worth remembering: DCA reduces the risk of poor entry timing but does not protect against the overall downtrend. You should only invest free funds that won't be needed in the near future.
Betting against the market: shorting and hedging
The most direct way to profit from a decline is short selling. A trader borrows an asset, sells it, and then buys it back cheaper. The main drawback is the asymmetry of risk: potential losses are theoretically unlimited. Therefore, position sizing and stop-losses are critically important.
An alternative is put options and inverse products. They give the right to sell an asset at a fixed price, and the maximum loss is limited to the premium paid. This is a more conservative tool for those who want to hedge their portfolio rather than gamble.
Saw instead of trend: tactics for volatility
In the midst of a bear phase, long periods of sluggish decline are interrupted by "dead cat bounces." Buyers who believe in a reversal often end up "underwater" at local peaks. While the trend stagnates in a horizontal range, range trading is effective: buying at the lower boundary, selling at the upper boundary. Another response to the choppy rhythm is scalping and intraday trading. However, all these techniques require iron discipline. A sudden bounce fuels excitement, and low liquidity increases the cost of mistakes.
Passive income: earn while you wait
While the market seeks support, capital doesn't have to sit idle. Ethereum staking yields about 2.8% annually, but it is paid in ETH, whose dollar value can melt away. A more reliable option is income on stablecoins, where capital remains in dollar equivalent and yields 5–10% annually. However, high yields may hide depeg risks.
A more active approach is DeFi farming, but it involves impermanent losses and smart contract risks. Delta-neutral strategies stand apart, allowing profit extraction from volatility without predicting price direction.
Bottom signals: what on-chain data says
The end of a bear market is only visible in hindsight. A key marker is capitulation: a wave of forced sales that "cleanses" the market of weak hands. The on-chain indicator MVRV Z-score, which shows the deviation of price from the average coin cost, is currently hovering around 0.25 — at the lower end of the scale. Historically, this indicated deep oversold conditions, but the current value does not reach the extremes of past cycles.
It is also useful to monitor the "Difficulty Ribbon" (miner capitulation) and realized price, which has historically served as support. No single indicator "rings the bell" at the very bottom, but their combination — capitulation, extreme fear, and on-chain undervaluation — significantly increases the likelihood of an imminent reversal.
My expert conclusion: The bear market rewards not courage, but cold calculation and well-thought-out risk management. Indicators are already signaling an approaching bottom, but no one can name the exact date. Those who soberly assess the recovery timeline and do not succumb to fear will prevail. The next cycle will test patience, not knowledge of new trading techniques. Prepare for it in advance.