The current bear phase for Bitcoin is the "easiest" in history: a 51% decline from the October 2025 all-time high, compared to the usual 77–84% in past cycles. However, market sentiment remains extremely gloomy, and the Fear and Greed Index has barely left the "red zone" throughout almost all of 2026. The paradox is that it is precisely in such moments, when the majority exits the game, that the foundation for future profits is laid.
Structure of the Current Downturn
Historically, Bitcoin has shown more aggressive corrections than the stock market. According to CoinGecko Research, past bear markets "ate up" between 77% and 84% of value: 83.6% in 2018–2019, 81.6% in 2014–2015, and 76.7% in 2022–2023. The current decline — only 51% — seems mild, but in terms of duration, it is already among the longest. The cascade of liquidations during "Black Saturday" in October 2025 significantly thinned the order book, making the market more sensitive to large trades.
Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy: Discount or Trap?
Past cycles prove that buying at the bottom yields fantastic returns. From the December 2018 low ($3,200) to the November 2021 peak ($69,000), Bitcoin grew 20-fold. The drop to $15,500 in November 2022 turned into a nearly 700% rise by October 2025. However, current levels are only 50% below the peak. If the market repeats even the mildest scenario, the price could fall to $29,000, which is half of current levels.
An alternative to trying to time the bottom is dollar-cost averaging (DCA). Regularly buying equal amounts reduces the risk of a bad entry point but does not protect against a general downward trend. The key rule: only invest free funds that won't be needed for years.
Betting on the Decline: Shorting, Options, and Inverse Products
A direct way to profit from a decline is short selling. However, the risk asymmetry here is critical: with a purchase, the loss is limited to the investment, but with a short, it is theoretically unlimited. Alternatives are put options and inverse ETFs, where the maximum loss equals the premium paid. But a bear market rarely moves in a straight line: "dead cat bounces" — short-term rallies amid a general downturn — burn positions of those who believed in a reversal.
Passive Income and "Safe Havens"
While the market searches for a bottom, capital doesn't have to sit idle. Ethereum staking yields about 2.8% annually — less than a year ago due to the increase in validators. Stablecoins in DeFi protocols offer 5–10% annually but carry risks of de-pegging and smart contract vulnerabilities. Delta-neutral strategies, which profit from the difference in funding rates, allow extracting profits from volatility without predicting price direction.
Bottom Signals: On-Chain Indicators
A key marker is the MVRV Z-score, which shows the deviation of market price from realized price. It currently hovers around 0.25 — at the lower end of the scale, which historically corresponds to zones of deep overselling. Additional signals include miner capitulation (hash ribbon), the start of accumulation by "strong hands," and extreme fear persisting for months. However, no indicator gives the exact date of a reversal — it only increases the probability of its proximity.
My professional conclusion: The current bear phase is not an anomaly but a natural stage of the cycle with unique characteristics: a smaller decline depth but a record duration of fear. Those who win are not the ones who guess the bottom, but those who disciplinedly follow a system, use averaging, and hedge risks through stablecoins and derivatives. History teaches that fortunes are made during the "bear market," and the "cream is skimmed" in the bull market. Prepare for the reversal, but don't try to predict it.