President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a decree regulating the digital asset industry. The document legalizes mining using associated petroleum gas (APG) and initiates the formation of a regulated market for cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. However, as my analysis shows, contrary to expectations, a mass migration of Russian miners to Kazakhstan will not occur.

What does Kazakhstan actually offer?

The decree provides for several key measures: bringing crypto asset transactions into the legal framework, creating conditions for the voluntary disclosure of digital assets held on foreign platforms, and allowing businesses to use stablecoins for cross-border settlements. Particularly noteworthy is the exemption of individuals' income from personal income tax, provided that transactions are conducted through Kazakhstan's infrastructure. This is a bold step that structurally echoes Russian discussions on wallet declaration, but unlike the position of the Central Bank of Russia, Kazakhstan takes a more liberal stance on stablecoins.

Associated gas: not a panacea, but a headache

Many perceived the legalization of mining on APG as manna from heaven. However, as experts rightly note, the technical characteristics of the gas itself make this process extremely inefficient. Associated gas is very sulfurous and dirty, and a significant portion of capital expenditure goes into its purification. Existing Russian projects mainly operate on dry stripped gas (DSG) or natural gas — both options are cleaner and cheaper in terms of infrastructure organization.

Why won't miners flock to Kazakhstan?

The key conclusion reached by the specialists I interviewed is that there will be no mass migration. The arguments vary, but they agree on one point: the economics don't add up.

  • Infrastructure ties: Equipment has already been imported into Russia with VAT. Moving it means incurring additional losses.
  • Gas price: In Russia, the tariff for miners is 7-8 rubles per cubic meter of gas, while in Kazakhstan it is already 14 rubles. A special tariff has not yet been agreed upon.
  • Historical precedent: In 2020, Kazakhstan ranked 2nd-3rd in global hashrate, but due to stringent requirements for legal registration, miners left for Russia. History may repeat itself.

Belarus as a real alternative

Today, the most attractive jurisdiction for Russian miners appears to be not Kazakhstan, but Belarus. There, the tax on mining income is only 1%, and the electricity tariff is about 4 rubles per kWh. For comparison: in Russia, it is 5.5 rubles with a 22% tax. That is why one company is already building a large 80 MW facility jointly with the High-Tech Park in Belarus.

Problems of Russian miners and conclusions

The situation in Russia is worsening. Out of nearly 200,000 miners, only about 5,500 have officially registered their activities — meaning 97% of the market remains in the shadows. By the end of 2025, the treasury may lose over 90% of planned tax revenues from mining. Simultaneously, the geography of legal mining is shrinking: since 2025, mining has been banned in ten regions, and a ban is being considered for the entire Central energy system, which includes 19 federal subjects.

My expert opinion: The Kazakh decree is more of a declaration of intent than a real catalyst for migration. Current conditions in Kazakhstan (high gas prices, uncertainty over tariffs and taxes) make it less attractive than Belarus or even some energy-surplus regions of Russia. While Russian authorities tighten regulations and raise taxes, the most forward-thinking players will seek refuge not in Kazakhstan, but in more liberal jurisdictions such as Belarus. And this is a matter of time and the price of bitcoin.