<p>Bitcoin: five months in the "deeply undervalued" zone — market analysis and signs of a bottom</p>

The first cryptocurrency has been trading below the average market price and the cost basis of short-term holders for the fifth consecutive month. This is one of the longest episodes of "deep undervaluation" of the asset on record. The current situation on the blockchain and derivatives market suggests that conditions for a trend reversal may already be in place.

Long-term investors are actively realizing losses. They account for 43% of the total realized volume on the network, and daily losses for this category of participants reach approximately $280 million — the highest since December 2022. Such capitulation is typically a precursor to the formation of a price bottom. This is a classic pattern where large holders exit positions, making room for new buyers.

At the same time, outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue. On July 8, net withdrawals amounted to $84.86 million, and trading volumes in this sector have fallen by 80% compared to peak levels from last fall. However, in the Ethereum ETF segment, capital inflows have been observed for the fifth consecutive day, which may indicate a shift in investor interest.

The market lacks a "monetary cushion": weakness in the U.S. labor market and high inflation limit the Federal Reserve's ability to ease policy. This puts additional pressure on risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

To confirm a trend reversal, Bitcoin needs to establish itself above the $76,600 level, and selling by large players must decrease. Meanwhile, the price of digital gold dropped to ~$61,700 on July 8 amid geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Earlier, analysts pointed to the risk of a decline below $58,000.

My expert opinion: Five months in the undervaluation zone is an extremely long period that rarely ends without significant movement. Capitulation by long-term holders is a powerful signal, but real growth requires a macroeconomic catalyst, such as a Fed rate cut. For now, the market is in an accumulation phase, and a breakout above $76,600 would be the first confirmation of a trend change.