President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a decree legalizing mining using associated petroleum gas (APG) and initiating the formation of a regulated market for digital assets and stablecoins. However, contrary to expectations, there will be no mass exodus of Russian miners to this country. My analysis, based on the opinions of leading industry experts, shows that Kazakhstan is far from the most attractive option for relocation.
What does Tokayev's decree provide?
The document brings crypto asset operations into the legal framework, encourages market participants to exit the gray zone, and creates conditions for the voluntary disclosure of digital assets with their subsequent transfer to platforms of domestic providers. The use of stablecoins for cross-border payments by businesses and government agencies is permitted. Income of individuals from digital asset transactions is exempt from personal income tax, provided that the transactions are conducted through regulated Kazakh infrastructure. At first glance, this is a progressive step. But the devil, as always, is in the details.
APG Mining: Not a Panacea
The key point is the technical side of the issue. Obtaining electricity from APG is an inefficient and costly process. Associated gas is very sulfurous and dirty, and a large portion of capital expenditure goes into its purification. This is why existing Russian projects mainly operate not on APG, but on dry stripped gas (DSG) or natural gas. Both options are cleaner and cheaper in terms of infrastructure organization. Consequently, the legalization of APG itself does not create an instant competitive advantage.
Why Won't Miners from Russia Rush to Kazakhstan?
Experts agree on the main point: there will be no mass migration. The arguments are compelling. Firstly, equipment has already been imported into Russia with Russian VAT — transporting it back is economically unfeasible. Secondly, the price of gas in Kazakhstan is significantly higher: 14 rubles per cubic meter versus 7-8 rubles in Russia. Add to this the costs of infrastructure construction, personnel training, and company relocation, and the picture becomes entirely unattractive.
It is important to remember the historical precedent: in 2020, Kazakhstan ranked 2nd-3rd in global hashrate, but due to complex requirements for legal registration, miners left for Russia. Now the situation is repeating itself, but in reverse — only with a worse economy.
Taxes, Belarus, and Kazakhstan's Prospects
Experts unanimously name not Kazakhstan, but Belarus, as the most advantageous jurisdiction for Russian miners. There, the tax on mining income is only 1%, and the electricity tariff is 4 rubles per kilowatt-hour. For comparison: in Russia, it is 5.5 rubles per kWh and a 22% tax. This is precisely why a large 80 MW facility is already being built in Belarus in cooperation with the High-Tech Park.
As for Kazakhstan, the prospects are unclear. They might create a free economic zone with cheap gas there, but it is currently unknown how ready the state is for such a step, considering that Kazakhstan itself purchases gas from other countries.
Problems of Russian Miners
The situation in Russia is worsening: out of nearly 200,000 miners, only about 5,500 have officially registered their activities — meaning 97% of the market remains in the shadows. Based on the results of 2025, the treasury may fall short of the planned 6 billion rubles in taxes, receiving only 567 million. Simultaneously, the geography of legal mining is shrinking: mining is banned in ten regions, including the Irkutsk region, and a complete ban is being discussed in the Unified Energy System of the Center, which covers 19 federal subjects and a quarter of the country's consumption.
Conclusions
My position as an analyst is unequivocal: neither the technical features of APG nor the current economic conditions make Kazakhstan a magnet for existing miners. The tightening of conditions within Russia — the growth of restricted zones, the shift to the shadows, and the 22% tax — creates pressure that will eventually push some players to seek new jurisdictions. But they will not flee to Kazakhstan; they will go where taxes are lower and energy is cheaper — for example, to Belarus. Kazakhstan still has a long way to go before it becomes a real alternative.