The market for the first cryptocurrency is experiencing one of the longest periods of fundamental undervaluation in its history. For five months, bitcoin has been trading below the average market price and the cost basis of short-term holders. This is a signal that in the past has consistently preceded the formation of a price bottom, and we are seeing it again now.
Capitulation of long-term investors
A key indicator of what is happening is the behavior of long-term holders. They currently account for 43% of all realized volume on the network, with daily losses for this category of participants reaching around $280 million. This level of loss realization was last observed in December 2022, which analysts unequivocally interpret as capitulation. This process traditionally clears the market for a new upward trend.
ETF flows: bitcoin loses, ether gains
At the same time, capital outflows from US spot bitcoin ETFs continue. On July 8 alone, net outflows amounted to $84.86 million. Trading volumes in this sector have fallen by 80% from the peak levels of fall 2025. However, in the Ethereum ETF segment, the opposite picture is observed: inflows have been recorded for the fifth consecutive day, indicating a shift in institutional interest.
Macroeconomic backdrop weighs on the market
Bitcoin's recovery is hindered by the lack of a "monetary cushion." Weakness in the US labor market combined with high inflation leaves the Fed with extremely limited room for maneuver. The market is waiting for policy easing, but for now, the regulator is forced to maintain a hawkish stance, which is restraining risky assets.
Technical benchmark and risks
In my assessment, conditions for a trend reversal have already formed at the level of on-chain data and derivatives. However, to confirm a phase change, bitcoin needs to consolidate above the $76,600 mark. A key condition is also a reduction in selling by large players. For now, the risk of a retest of the $58,000 level remains, as analysts have previously warned.
My professional opinion: What is happening is a classic accumulation phase under conditions of maximum fear. The capitulation of long-term holders is a painful but necessary process for clearing the market. However, without a macroeconomic catalyst (rate cuts or a positive geopolitical shift), bitcoin could spend several more weeks in this range. Patience is the main asset right now.