The fate of the bill "On Digital Currency and Digital Rights" in Russia remains uncertain. Originally set to come into force on July 1, 2026, the deadline was missed. The document successfully passed its first reading in April, but the process then stalled. Authorities claim the bill is ready for a second reading and have set a new deadline of September 1. However, in my estimation, even this date looks extremely optimistic: the depth of regulatory development and the coordination of the interests of many parties require significantly more time.

Player positions: waiting and preservation

While lawmakers drag out the process, key market participants — exchangers and private "money changers" — are in no hurry to radically change their business models. An analysis of the situation shows that most have adopted a wait-and-see stance.

Representatives of the large exchanger The Hermes Exchange state that no practical changes have occurred in their operations. Deadlines are constantly being pushed back, so there is no point in rushing to register and obtain licenses. The company emphasizes that obtaining a license would not be difficult for them if necessary, and they will continue to work with foreign economic activity as usual.

Dmitry Stepanin, head of the Satoshkin project, continues to work using previous methods, focusing on cash transactions and licensed services in "friendly" countries. This is a classic scenario for the Russian crypto market: waiting for clarity from the regulator.

"Money changers" go deeper into the shadows

The most telling transformation is occurring in the segment of private "money changers." An anonymous interlocutor involved in exchange operations in Sochi has deliberately refused legalization. He sees no advantages in it and, on the contrary, fears ending up on regulators' "hit lists." His clients have "frozen" in anticipation, and he himself has become much more cautious.

The key trigger for changes has been not so much Russian laws as the EU's sanctions pressure. The entire Russian crypto sector has come under attack, and major exchanges like HTX are already feeling pressure due to ties with Russia. A new sanctions package on the horizon makes working with "Russian" cryptocurrency toxic. No one wants to get involved with "dirty" assets.

In response, "money changers" have begun to:

  • Screen clients more carefully, giving preference to verified ones.
  • Actively use AML services to exclude potentially "dirty" addresses.
  • Refuse to split transactions.

Notably, our interlocutor prefers to work with TRC-20 standard tokens, bypassing Ethereum. The choice is driven not by technical anonymity (both networks are transparent), but by a desire to "blend into the crowd." The bulk of "gray" USDT passes through Tron, so an individual transaction gets lost in the overall mass. Additionally, Tron is cheaper, faster, and less heavily covered by Western AML tools, allowing it to attract less attention.

Analyst's conclusions

While the authorities have not yet gotten around to formalizing the regulatory environment, market participants are independently changing the rules of operation. The changes are governed by a single principle — maintaining security amid total uncertainty. Chaos at the legislative level forces the "inhabitants of the crypto seas" to go into the shadows, deepening an already gray market. In a country where the vast majority of crypto enthusiasts prefer to "keep a low profile," the authorities' chosen tactic of dragging things out could seriously damage the legal sector, ultimately driving it underground.