While the market was digesting overnight movements, key industry players were laying the groundwork for significant changes. The morning of July 10 brought several notable news items, from Polymarket's regulatory maneuvers to a technical force majeure in the Zcash network and unexpected analytical conclusions from Bitwise. Let's examine the situation in detail.
Polymarket: Margin Trading on the Horizon
The prediction market platform Polymarket is taking a decisive step toward the regulated US market. A related entity has filed documents with the National Futures Association (NFA) to register as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM). This would allow users to place bets on events by depositing only a portion of the required capital, i.e., using leverage. However, the full launch of margin trading still depends on approval from the CFTC. Interestingly, Polymarket's competitor, the Kalshi platform, received similar approval back in March 2026, creating some pressure on the pioneer.
Zcash: Ironwood Rushes to the Rescue
The Zcash network is preparing for an important hard fork called Ironwood, scheduled for July 28. This upgrade is a direct response to a critical bug discovered in May in the main private transaction pool, Orchard. Ironwood will close the current pool, lock new activity within it, and create a new private pool. The key goal is to conduct a thorough "checkpoint" for all funds leaving Orchard to identify and isolate any counterfeit ZEC tokens that may have been created due to the vulnerability. The upgrade was initially planned for July 21 but was postponed by a week at the request of Shielded Labs due to concerns that exchanges, mining pools, and wallets would not be ready in time.
Bitwise: DeFi Shows Anomalous Resilience
Bitwise analysts have noted a curious trend: while Bitcoin fell by approximately 22% in June, the index of major DeFi tokens declined by only 4%. This is highly unusual for the traditionally volatile sector, which typically suffers the most during corrections. Bitwise experts call this a "quiet revaluation" of DeFi. In their view, protocols like Morpho and Jupiter have attracted the attention of major institutional players. However, despite this resilience, the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi has shrunk by nearly 40% since the beginning of the year — from ~$115 billion to just over $70 billion. This suggests that capital is flowing, not disappearing, and is perhaps being redistributed in favor of higher-quality assets.
Market Snapshot at 07:35 MSK
Bitcoin (BTC) started the day with a gain, trading at $64,044 (approximately 4.86 million rubles). Over the past 24 hours, the asset updated its low at $62,190 and its high at $63,992. Ethereum (ETH) is also in positive territory, holding near the $1,774 mark (~134,700 rubles). In the top 10 by market capitalization, all coins are in the green over the past 24 hours. The best performer over 24 hours was BTC itself (+2.93%), and over the week — TRON (+4.51%). In the top 100, the growth leader over 24 hours and the week was DeXe (+16.48% and +46.22%, respectively). The laggards include MemeCore (-3.74% over 24 hours) and Audiera (-27.50% over the week).
My Comment: Polymarket's application for margin trading is not just a step toward legalization but an attempt to create a new class of financial instruments at the intersection of gambling and derivatives. As for DeFi, the "quiet revaluation" is, in my opinion, a sign of market maturation. Capital is moving away from speculative junk tokens toward protocols with real institutional adoption. This is a positive signal for long-term investors, but it does not guarantee a rapid rally.