Investment company Bitwise calls the CLARITY Act one of the key catalysts for the cryptocurrency market in the third quarter. According to analysts, its approval could coincide with the end of the current bearish trend.
The management company detailed four main triggers in its latest report for the third quarter of 2026. Experts believe that the future fate of the key digital asset market structure law will be decided during these months.
Why the CLARITY Act became the main factor for the market
The CLARITY Act remains one of the most anticipated regulatory documents in the crypto industry. However, the process of its approval in the Senate has faced serious legal obstacles. As a result, the initiative's progress has temporarily stalled due to two contentious issues.
First and foremost, a heated debate over ethical norms and the financial interests of the president's family in the cryptocurrency industry became a stumbling block. Additional disagreements arise from the famous Section 604, which completely exempts non-custodial developers from requirements for money transmission operators. This provision is currently being actively discussed by lawmakers and relevant agencies.
On popular prediction platforms, the chances of the law's final passage in 2026 are currently estimated at around 40%. For comparison, in mid-May this figure stood at a confident 75%.
Nevertheless, Bitwise maintains cautious optimism. According to their assessment, if the law is approved, the market may find the bottom of the current correction. If it is voted against, volatility spikes will not be long in coming.
"If the vote is successful, the bottom of the bear market will be behind us. If the law is not passed, volatility is possible at first, after which the outlook will become clearer — the industry will continue to develop with the support of crypto-friendly SEC and CFTC," Bitwise notes.
What other drivers for the crypto market does Bitwise highlight in the third quarter
Besides the CLARITY Act, the management company named three other important triggers. Second on the list are stablecoins. During the current quarter, regulators are expected to approve the rules of the GENIUS Act, which will take effect in January 2027.
Bitwise expects that in the near future, new major companies will announce the launch of their own stablecoins. As an example, they cite OpenUSD, supported by Stripe, BlackRock, Visa, Coinbase, and about 140 other companies.
"Since last autumn, the stablecoin supply has remained at around $300 billion — the market has not shown such stability even during downturns. We see that the accelerating growth of stablecoins could become a driver for networks like Ethereum and Solana in the third quarter, as interest in their ecosystems will only grow closer to January," Bitwise added.
The company also noted the new composition of the US Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh — his stance on markets remains unclear. For now, the rate remains unchanged. Bitwise believes that by the end of the quarter, market participants will receive more information about the regulator's future decisions. Predicting the rate is still difficult, but any Fed decision will change investor sentiment across all risk assets.
Additionally, Bitwise noted a noticeable shift in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. Over the past month, Bitcoin (BTC) has lost about 22%, while the DeFi index, according to Bitwise's calculations, has only declined by 4%.
"Typically, DeFi reacts more strongly than Bitcoin, so such resilience is a rarity that few are talking about. We believe the DeFi sector is undergoing a quiet revaluation," the report states. "We expect DeFi's outperformance to continue in the third quarter, with the market only taking notice later."
The new analyst forecast comes right after an extremely tough second quarter. During this period, the cryptocurrency sector showed its third consecutive negative quarterly performance, something investors have not seen since 2022.
Expert comment: The CLARITY Act could indeed become the "final nail in the coffin" of the bear market, but only if it passes successfully. The drop in the probability of passage to 40% is a worrying signal that the market is currently ignoring. The DeFi sector, showing anomalous resilience, deserves special attention: this could be a sign of hidden accumulation by large players.