Investment firm Bitwise has highlighted the CLARITY Act as one of the key catalysts for the cryptocurrency market in the third quarter of 2026. The firm's analysts believe that its approval could coincide with the end of the current bearish trend, marking a turning point for the entire industry.
CLARITY Act: The Main Regulatory Trigger
The CLARITY Act remains one of the most anticipated regulatory documents in the crypto industry, but its approval process in the Senate has faced serious legal obstacles. Progress on the initiative has been temporarily halted due to two contentious issues: a heated debate over ethical norms and the financial interests of the president's family in the cryptocurrency industry, as well as disagreements over Section 604, which exempts non-custodial developers from requirements for money transmitter operators.
On popular prediction platforms, the chances of the law being finally passed in 2026 are currently estimated at around 40%. For comparison, in mid-May this figure stood at a confident 75%. Despite the decline in probability, Bitwise maintains cautious optimism. According to their assessment, if the law is approved, the market could find the bottom of the current correction. If it is voted against, volatility spikes are sure to follow.
"In the event of a successful vote, the bottom of the bear market will be behind us. If the law is not passed, volatility may occur first, after which the outlook will become clearer — the industry will continue to develop with the support of crypto-friendly SEC and CFTC," Bitwise notes.
Three Additional Drivers
In addition to the CLARITY Act, the management company named three other important triggers. Second on the list are stablecoins. During the current quarter, regulators are expected to approve the rules of the GENIUS Act, which will take effect in January 2027. Bitwise expects that new major companies will soon announce the launch of their own stablecoins. As an example, they cite OpenUSD, supported by Stripe, BlackRock, Visa, Coinbase, and about 140 other companies.
"Since last fall, the stablecoin volume has held steady at around $300 billion — the market hasn't shown such stability even during downturns. We see that the accelerating growth of stablecoins could become a driver for networks like Ethereum and Solana in the third quarter, as interest in their ecosystems will only grow closer to January," Bitwise added.
The company also drew attention to the new composition of the US Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh — his stance on markets remains unclear. For now, the rate remains unchanged. Bitwise believes that by the end of the quarter, market participants will receive more information about the regulator's future decisions. Predicting the rate is still difficult, but any Fed decision will change investor sentiment across all risk assets.
DeFi Shows Resilience
Additionally, Bitwise noted a notable change in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. Over the past month, Bitcoin (BTC) has lost about 22%, while the DeFi index, according to Bitwise's calculations, has only declined by 4%.
"Typically, DeFi reacts more strongly than Bitcoin, so such resilience is rare and little discussed. We believe the DeFi sector is undergoing a quiet revaluation. We expect DeFi's outperformance to continue into the third quarter, with the market only taking notice later," the report states.
This forecast comes right after an extremely difficult second quarter, during which the cryptocurrency sector posted its third consecutive negative quarterly performance — investors haven't seen this since 2022.
Expert opinion: The market is clearly in a zone of uncertainty, where regulatory clarity will be the key catalyst. However, the decline in the probability of CLARITY's passage to 40% is a worrying signal. Investors should prepare for increased volatility in the coming months, especially against the backdrop of the Fed's unclear position. The DeFi sector, showing anomalous resilience, could become a 'safe haven' during this period, but its outperformance is unlikely to go unnoticed for long.