The cryptocurrency market is in a state of anticipation. In its latest report for the third quarter of 2026, investment firm Bitwise highlighted four key catalysts that could change the current trajectory of asset movement. In my view, the most important of these is the fate of the CLARITY Act bill, which could become the "trigger" that ends the prolonged bear market.
CLARITY Act: The Last Frontier
The CLARITY Act bill remains perhaps the most anticipated regulatory act in the industry. However, its path to passage in the Senate has been fraught with challenges. The initiative's progress has temporarily stalled due to two contentious issues. First, there are ethical standards and the financial interests of the president's family in the crypto sphere. Second, Section 604, which fully exempts non-custodial developers from requirements imposed on money transfer operators. This provision is currently the subject of active consultations between lawmakers and relevant agencies.
On prediction platforms such as Polymarket, the chances of the CLARITY Act being finally passed in 2026 are estimated at around 40%. For comparison, in mid-May this figure stood at a confident 75%. A drop of more than half is a worrying signal, but not a fatal one.
Bitwise maintains cautious optimism. According to their assessment, if the law is approved, we will see the bottom of the current correction. If not, the market will face a surge in volatility, after which it will become clear how the industry will develop further, relying on support from the already crypto-friendly SEC and CFTC.
Three Other Drivers: Stablecoins, the Fed, and DeFi
In addition to the CLARITY Act, Bitwise analysts highlight three other important triggers. Second on the list are stablecoins. This quarter, regulators are expected to approve the rules of the GENIUS Act, which will take effect in January 2027. Bitwise expects that major companies will soon announce the launch of their own stablecoins. An example is the OpenUSD project, backed by Stripe, BlackRock, Visa, Coinbase, and about 140 other companies. The stablecoin market remains stable at around $300 billion, which in itself is a bullish signal, especially for networks like Ethereum and Solana, which will benefit from increased activity.
The third factor is the new composition of the U.S. Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh. His stance on interest rates is still unclear, but by the end of the quarter, the market will receive more information about the regulator's future decisions. Any change in rates will alter investor sentiment across all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Finally, Bitwise draws attention to the notable resilience of the DeFi sector. Over the past month, Bitcoin has lost about 22%, while the DeFi index, according to the company's calculations, has fallen by only 4%. This is a rare signal that indicates a "quiet revaluation" of the sector. Typically, DeFi reacts more strongly than Bitcoin, so this resilience is an anomaly worthy of close attention.
My comment: The situation resembles the calm before the storm. The CLARITY Act is not just a regulatory document; it is an indicator of market maturity. If it is passed, we will get clear rules of the game that will open the floodgates for institutional capital. If not, the market will continue to wander in the dark, but, as the resilience of DeFi shows, "smart money" is already placing its bets.