Sales of bitcoin reserves by Strategy are only a temporary factor of pressure on the market. The real structural risk for the first cryptocurrency lies in the development of private blockchain infrastructures. This conclusion follows from a fresh analysis by the JPMorgan team.
The bank's experts model a negative scenario in which asset tokenization, payment systems, and settlement operations increasingly migrate to closed networks with limited access. If this trend takes hold, the entire crypto ecosystem will face a so-called "structural derating" — a slowdown in on-chain activity, a drop in liquidity, and a weakening of cross-network capital flows. Ultimately, this will also hit bitcoin.
According to JPMorgan estimates, institutional adoption has so far favored permissioned blockchains due to their superiority in privacy, strict compliance with AML/KYC norms, direct control, and regulatory certainty. "This creates a direct competitive threat to public networks such as Ethereum," the analysts emphasize.
BIS and CBDC: an alternative to stablecoins
Special attention in the report is given to the position of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which consistently warns about the risks of using public blockchains in systemically important financial infrastructure. Instead, the BIS promotes the concept of unified permissioned ledgers, combining central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), commercial bank deposits, and tokenized assets in a single regulated environment.
If such solutions become widespread — especially in the non-transferable form preferred by regulators — the need for stablecoins for institutional payments and settlements could sharply decline. This is also driven by SWIFT's blockchain initiatives and numerous CBDC projects worldwide.
Analysts also question the efficiency of settlements through public networks: deferred and netting operations in private systems can reduce the need for liquidity, improve capital efficiency, and better align with funding management standards.
Even regulation won't save it
Notably, even the possible adoption of the CLARITY Act, according to JPMorgan, will not nullify these risks. Clearer rules for digital assets could, on the contrary, stimulate the development of bank tokenized deposits, strengthening the positions of traditional financial institutions and limiting the role of stablecoins based on public blockchains.
As an alternative, experts propose a hybrid model combining the functions of public and private protocols. However, in practice, this approach still looks more theoretical.
My expert opinion: The market is too focused on Strategy's actions and macroeconomic factors, overlooking a fundamental shift in institutional infrastructure. If major players ultimately choose private blockchains for tokenization and settlements, bitcoin risks losing a key driver of demand — institutional capital flows. This could prove to be a more serious challenge than any bear cycle.