While the market's attention is focused on periodic bitcoin reserve sales by Strategy, JPMorgan analysts point to a much deeper systemic risk for the first cryptocurrency. This is not about short-term seller pressure, but a fundamental shift in the architecture of blockchain infrastructure.
According to experts, the key threat comes from the migration of tokenization, payments, and settlements into closed, permissioned networks. If this trend intensifies, the entire crypto ecosystem will face so-called "structural derating" — a slowdown in activity, a decline in liquidity, and a weakening of capital flows, which will inevitably impact bitcoin as well.
Why Institutions Choose Privacy
So far, institutional adoption has favored blockchains with restricted access. The reason is obvious: they provide a high level of confidentiality, strict AML/KYC control, direct governance, and regulatory certainty. This creates a direct competitive threat to public networks such as Ethereum, and, indirectly, to bitcoin as an asset that depends on the overall liquidity of the ecosystem.
The BIS Position and the Threat to Stablecoins
Particular concern is raised by the position of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which consistently warns about the risks of using public blockchains in systemically important financial infrastructure. The BIS actively promotes the concept of unified permissioned ledgers, combining central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), commercial bank deposits, and tokenized assets in a single regulated environment.
If such solutions gain widespread adoption — especially in the non-transferable form preferred by regulators — demand for stablecoins for institutional settlements could sharply decline. This trend will be further amplified by SWIFT's blockchain initiatives and national CBDC projects.
Settlements in Public Networks: Inefficient?
JPMorgan analysts also question the efficiency of settlements through public networks. Deferred and netting operations, in their view, reduce the need for liquidity, improve capital efficiency, and better align with modern funding management practices. Even the adoption of the CLARITY Act in the US, which could clarify the regulation of digital assets, does not necessarily reduce risks. On the contrary, clear rules may stimulate the development of bank tokenized deposits, strengthening the position of traditional financial institutions and limiting the role of stablecoins based on public blockchains.
As an alternative, experts propose a hybrid model that would combine the functions of public and private protocols.
Expert commentary from Cryptalist: The market is too focused on the actions of miners and corporate sales, ignoring tectonic shifts in institutional infrastructure. If regulators and major banks truly choose the path of closed ledgers, bitcoin risks remaining isolated — as digital gold that no one uses for settlements. A hybrid model may be the only way to maintain the relevance of public networks in the new financial architecture.