Investment company Bitwise has released its fresh market outlook for the third quarter of 2026, highlighting four key catalysts that could radically change the current market conditions. According to analysts, the main one is the fate of the CLARITY Act bill. They believe this regulatory act could put an end to the prolonged bearish trend.
Currently, the probability of the CLARITY Act being passed in 2026, according to data from the Polymarket platform, is estimated at around 40%. For comparison, in mid-May this figure was at a confident 75%. This sharp decline is due to serious legal disagreements that arose during the Senate approval process. The stumbling blocks are two controversial points: first, ethical standards and the financial interests of the president's family in the crypto industry, and second, the famous Section 604, which completely exempts non-custodial developers from requirements imposed on money transfer operators. These points are currently being actively discussed by lawmakers and relevant agencies.
Despite the uncertainty, Bitwise maintains cautious optimism. The company believes that if the law is approved, the market could find the bottom of the current correction. If the CLARITY Act is rejected, we can expect a surge in volatility, after which sentiment will become clearer, and the industry will continue to develop with the support of crypto-oriented SEC and CFTC.
In addition to the CLARITY Act, Bitwise highlights three other significant drivers. Second on the list are stablecoins. It is expected that major companies will soon announce the launch of their own stablecoins, such as OpenUSD with support from Stripe, BlackRock, Visa, Coinbase, and about 140 other companies. Analysts believe that the accelerating growth of stablecoins could become a driver for networks like Ethereum and Solana, especially closer to January 2027, when the GENIUS Act comes into effect.
The third factor is the new composition of the U.S. Federal Reserve under the leadership of Kevin Warsh. While his position remains unclear to the markets and the rate remains unchanged, any decision by the regulator will change investor sentiment across all risky assets.
Finally, Bitwise notes a noticeable change in the DeFi sector. Over the past month, Bitcoin has lost about 22%, while the DeFi index has only fallen by 4%. Such resilience is rare, and analysts believe the sector is undergoing a quiet revaluation that could persist into the third quarter, only attracting market attention in hindsight.
Commentary from Cryptalist analyst: The situation with the CLARITY Act is a classic example of how regulatory uncertainty weighs on the market. The drop in the probability of passage from 75% to 40% is not just numbers, but a reflection of real political risks. However, I agree with Bitwise: even if the law is not passed, the industry will not stop. We are already seeing institutions (in the form of Stripe and BlackRock) entering through stablecoins, creating a "safe haven" for themselves. This suggests that the bottom may be closer than it seems, but it will not be a single event, but rather a process of adapting to new realities.