While the market records periodic sell-offs of Bitcoin reserves by Strategy, JPMorgan analysts are drawing attention to a much more fundamental problem. In their view, the true structural risk for the first cryptocurrency lies not in the behavior of large holders, but in the rapid development of private blockchain infrastructure.
The key negative scenario described by experts is the gradual migration of tokenization, payments, and settlements to closed networks with limited access. If this trend intensifies, the entire crypto ecosystem could face so-called "structural derating": slowing activity, declining liquidity, and weakening capital flows. Ultimately, this would directly impact Bitcoin, which, as a public asset, would become isolated from mainstream institutional liquidity.
Why are institutions choosing private networks? The answer is obvious: they offer a high level of privacy, built-in AML/KYC controls, direct management, and regulatory certainty. JPMorgan explicitly states that this creates a competitive threat to public blockchains, including Ethereum.
BIS and Unified Ledgers: A New Threat to Stablecoins
Particularly alarming is the stance of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which consistently warns about the risks of using public blockchains in systemically important financial infrastructure. Instead, BIS promotes permissioned unified ledgers that combine central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), commercial bank deposits, and tokenized assets in a single regulated environment.
If such solutions gain widespread adoption — especially in the non-transferable form preferred by regulators — the need for stablecoins for institutional settlements could sharply decline. This trend will be further reinforced by SWIFT's blockchain initiatives and CBDC projects.
Analysts also question the efficiency of settlements via public networks. Deferred and netting operations on private platforms significantly reduce the need for liquidity, enhance capital efficiency, and better align with the funding management practices adopted in traditional finance.
CLARITY Act: A Double-Edged Sword
Even the potential passage of the CLARITY Act, according to JPMorgan, will not eliminate the risks. Clearer rules for digital assets could simultaneously stimulate the development of bank tokenized deposits, strengthening the positions of existing financial institutions and limiting the role of stablecoins based on public blockchains. As an alternative, experts propose a hybrid model combining the functions of public and private protocols.
Expert Commentary: The market has ignored this risk for too long, focusing on short-term sales. Meanwhile, if institutional liquidity ultimately moves into private networks, Bitcoin risks becoming an asset with high volatility but without a real institutional foundation. This could become the most serious challenge for the entire industry in recent years.