This week, the market witnessed a landmark event: Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, conducted the largest BTC sell-off in its history, recording a loss of about 20%. This action, though forced, sheds light on the comparative vulnerability of different categories of market participants.
Comparison of Purchase Prices: Who is at Risk?
Data analysis shows that Strategy's average Bitcoin purchase price ($75,476) is significantly higher than the average realized price of all BTC on Binance ($60,900). The recent sale of 3,588 BTC at approximately $60,000 to cover dividends on Digital Credit securities resulted in a 20% loss. This highlights that the institutional giant found itself in a more vulnerable position than the average holder on the largest exchange.
Despite this forced sale, Strategy retains a massive reserve of 843,775 BTC. For context, this exceeds Binance's own reserves, which stand at 656,561 BTC. Meanwhile, Binance's share of the total Bitcoin on all centralized exchanges reaches nearly 30%, making it a key indicator of market sentiment.
Spot Demand Dwindles: A Bearish Signal
Further cause for concern comes from the analysis of the 90-day Spot Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator. This metric clearly shows who controls the market—real buyers or sellers. After a period of buyer dominance (green zones), which supported Bitcoin, the indicator has returned to a neutral zone. This suggests that the aggressive spot demand necessary for sustained growth has disappeared.
The market is now at a bifurcation point. If the indicator turns green again, it will signal the return of real demand and could trigger a new upward impulse. If it moves into the red zone, selling pressure will intensify, and Bitcoin may enter a new wave of decline. The analyst's key takeaway: sustainable growth is created by real demand, not leverage.
My expert opinion: The connection between these two events is obvious. Strategy's forced sale around the $60,000 mark coincided with weakening spot demand. This means the market currently has little capacity to absorb large offerings. If real buyers do not return, current support levels will be extremely fragile under the pressure of such sell-offs. Investors should prepare for increased volatility.