The Bitcoin market is once again showing signs of vulnerability. On-chain data analysis reveals that the average purchase price of BTC for Strategy is significantly higher than that of holders on the Binance exchange. Moreover, this week Strategy recorded the largest Bitcoin sale in its history, incurring a loss of approximately 20%.
According to my calculations, the company sold 3,588 BTC for roughly $216 million. These funds were used to finance dividends on Digital Credit securities. With an average purchase price of $75,476 and a sale price around the $60,000 level, the transaction resulted in a loss of about 20%.
Who is at a loss: the corporation or retail traders?
It is important to understand: this sale is a forced measure driven by a need for liquidity, not a market forecast. Despite this, Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of BTC, retaining 843,775 coins in its portfolio. For comparison, Binance's own reserves amount to 656,561 BTC. This volume underscores the scale of the company's holdings relative to the world's largest trading platform.
For context: nearly 30% of all Bitcoin on exchanges is held on Binance. However, the realized price of BTC in Binance's reserves is around $60,900 — noticeably lower than Strategy's cost basis. This means the average holder on the exchange is closer to the breakeven point than Michael Saylor's company. In simple terms, retail investors who bought BTC on Binance have, on average, a smaller unrealized loss than Strategy, whose portfolio is "heavier" in terms of average price.
Spot demand weakens: what's next?
The picture is further complemented by an analysis of the 90-day Spot Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) indicator. This metric reflects who controls the market — real buyers or sellers. Green zones on the chart correspond to buyer dominance, while red zones indicate increasing selling pressure.
Key observation: the strong spot buying pressure that previously supported Bitcoin has begun to weaken. The indicator has returned to a neutral zone. This does not mean buyers have completely left the market. However, in my assessment, there is currently not enough aggressive spot demand to significantly drive the price up.
I outline two scenarios. If the indicator turns green again, it will signal the return of real demand, and the rally could strengthen. If it turns red, selling pressure will increase, and Bitcoin may enter a new wave of decline.
The connection between the two analyses is clear: they describe the same market vulnerability from different angles. Strategy's forced sale at a loss of around $60,000 shows that even the largest corporate holder is compelled to lock in losses. And the weakening spot demand means there is currently almost no one to absorb such supply. If real buyers do not return, the market will struggle to hold current levels under the pressure of such sales.
My professional opinion: the situation resembles a classic "bearish" signal. When a major player, historically a "bull," is forced to sell at a loss — it's a warning sign for the market. The combination of weakening demand and forced selling from Strategy creates conditions for further correction. Investors should closely monitor the return of spot buyers — they will be the key driver for a reversal.