This week, Strategy, one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin, executed the largest BTC sale in its history, recording a loss of approximately 20%. In my opinion, this move is driven not by market conditions, but by a harsh necessity for liquidity to fund dividend payments on its Digital Credit securities.
According to the data I have analyzed, the company sold 3,588 BTC for approximately $216 million. With an average purchase price of $75,476 and a sale price of around $60,000, the transaction resulted in a significant loss. This is an important signal for the market.
Comparison of Bases: Corporation vs. Exchange
The key conclusion I draw is that Strategy's average Bitcoin purchase price is significantly higher than that of the average holder on the Binance exchange. Based on estimates I have verified, the average realized Bitcoin price on Binance is around $60,900. This is noticeably lower than Strategy's.
This means that the average trader on Binance is much closer to the breakeven point than the strategic corporate investor. Notably, despite the sale, Strategy continues to hold 843,775 BTC, which exceeds Binance's own reserves (656,561 BTC). This fact underscores the enormous scale of the company's influence on the market, surpassing even the holdings of the largest trading platform.
For context: nearly 30% of all Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges is on Binance. That is a dominant share, but Strategy's reserves are still larger.
Weakening Spot Demand
Adding to the concern is the analysis of spot demand. According to my observations, the 90-day Spot Taker CVD indicator, which reflects who controls the market—real buyers or sellers—has returned to a neutral zone. The previously strong spot buying pressure that supported Bitcoin has begun to weaken.
This does not mean that buyers have completely disappeared, but in my assessment, there is currently not enough aggressive demand to noticeably raise the price. I see two main scenarios: if the indicator turns green again, it would signal a return of real demand and potential growth. If it turns red, selling pressure would intensify, and Bitcoin could enter a new wave of decline.
The connection between these two phenomena is clear. Strategy's loss-making sale shows that even the largest player is forced to lock in losses at the $60,000 level. And the weakening spot demand means there is virtually no one to absorb such supply right now. If real buyers do not return, it will be extremely difficult for the market to hold current levels under the pressure of such sales.
My verdict: The market is in a vulnerable position. A forced sale of this magnitude by a key investor, combined with weakening fundamental demand, is a warning sign. A short-term bounce is possible, but for sustainable growth, a powerful influx of new real capital is needed, not just speculative leverage. Until that happens, risks are skewed towards further correction.