The Bitcoin market is once again showing interesting dynamics, revealing the difference in positions among the largest holders. According to my analysis, the average purchase price of Bitcoin for Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is noticeably higher than that of the average holder on the Binance exchange. This week, Strategy conducted the largest BTC sale in its history, recording a loss of about 20%.
The company sold 3,588 BTC for approximately $216 million to finance dividends on its Digital Credit securities. With an average acquisition price of $75,476 and a sale around the $60,000 level, the transaction resulted in a loss of about 20%. This is a forced measure to ensure liquidity, not a market conviction.
Cost Comparison: Strategy vs. Binance
Despite this sale, Strategy remains a colossal player. The company still holds 843,775 bitcoins. This volume exceeds the reserves of the Binance exchange itself, which amount to 656,561 BTC. This comparison highlights the scale of the company's holdings relative to the world's largest trading platform.
For context: nearly 30% of all bitcoins on exchanges are on Binance — a notable share among platforms open to all types of investors. However, the average realized price of Bitcoin on Binance is around $60,900. This level is significantly lower than Strategy's cost basis, meaning the average holder on the exchange is closer to breakeven.
Spot Demand Weakens: What This Means for the Market
The picture is complemented by an analysis of the 90-day Spot Taker CVD indicator. This metric reflects who controls the market — real buyers or sellers. Green zones on the chart correspond to buyer dominance, while red zones indicate increasing selling pressure.
Key observation: the strong spot buying pressure that had been supporting Bitcoin has begun to weaken, and the indicator has returned to a neutral zone. This does not mean buyers have completely left the market. However, there is currently insufficient aggressive spot demand to noticeably drive the price up.
I highlight two scenarios. If the indicator turns green again, it will signal the return of real demand, and the uptrend could strengthen. If it turns red, selling pressure will increase, and Bitcoin may enter a new wave of decline.
The connection between the two analyses is clear: they describe the same market vulnerability from different angles. Strategy's loss-making sale shows that even the largest corporate holder is forced to exit around $60,000, while weakening spot demand means there is almost no one to absorb such supply right now. If real buyers do not return, the market will find it harder to hold current levels under pressure from such sales.
My expert opinion: This situation is a classic signal of the fragility of the current equilibrium. Strategy's sale is not panicked, but it exposes a structural weakness: without a steady influx of new buyers, especially in the spot market, any large supply could trigger a correction. Investors should closely monitor the return of demand, rather than short-term price fluctuations.